Exit poll results Lok Sabha elections 2014

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The exit polls for the 16th Lok Sabha elections are out and BJP-led NDA is set to form the next government headed by Narendra Modi. The ruling Congress-led UPA has been reduced to double digit in some of the exit polls while others predict it crossing 100. While BJP has gained in every other part of the country, Tamil Nadu exit polls must come as a shocker to the saffron party as it has failed to even open its account there.

The big gains for the BJP come from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

2014 Lok Sabha election Exit Polls

CHANNEL

BJP+

CONGRESS+

OTHERS

ABP-NEWS

281

97

165

CNN-IBN

270-282

92-102

150-159

INDIA TODAY

261-283

101-120

152-162

INDIA TV

289

101

153

NEWS24

340

70

133

TIMES NOW

249

148

146

There’s a famous saying that ‘the route to Delhi (forming a government) passes through Uttar Pradesh’. Any political party claiming to form the government has to win big in the Hindu heartland state and BJP has left no stone unturned to have as many seats. The state is famously termed as the ‘kingmaker’. For Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll analysis click here.

With the BJP’s ‘Modi Wave’ campaign this time, the saffron party has taken everyone by surprise in Gujarat. The Arvind Kejriwal’s two-day dramatic visit to Gujarat didn’t dent the BJP vote bank and they’re estimated to bag a whopping 24 seats from the state. Read more

In Delhi BJP makes a comeback at the expense of Congress and AAP. Read more

(For Exit Poll 2014 Results click here)

PRE-POLL SURVEY

ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll: Lok Sabha 2014

The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 236 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 92 seats. According to the projection, BJP alone will get 217 (won 116 seats in 2009) seats out of a total 543 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress is projected to get only 73 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats–133 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House. The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion’s share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.

Alliance / Party

2009 Actual

February 2014 Survey estimate

UPA

259

92

NDA

159

236

Left

125

29

Others

186

 

Times NOW-C Voter national poll projection

Bharatiya Janata Party will emerge as the front-runner in the upcoming general election, according to the Times NOW-C Voter national poll projection.The latest pre-poll survey predicts a big surge for BJP from the last election, taking the seat count for the National Democratic Alliance that it leads to 227, just 55 short of a simple majority. That compares with 159 Lok Sabha seats for NDA in 2009. The findings are in line with those of recent opinion polls.

Alliance / Party

2009 Actual

February 2014 Survey estimate

UPA

259

101

NDA

159

227

Others

125

215

Projected vote share for Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra:

According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker the saffron combine of BJP-Shiv Sena and RPI (Athavale) combine seems to have a clear lead over the ruling Congress-NCP alliance.  According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.

Alliance / Party

2009 Actual

February 2014 Survey estimate

INC-NCP

39

36

BJP-SS-RPI(A)

35

42

AAP

-

5

BSP

5

4

MNS

4

4

Others

17

9

For detailed CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS survey report click here:

CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS – Delhi

Both the AAP and BJP are expected to get 2-4 seats each in Delhi. The Congress is expected to get 0-2 seats. The Congress seems to have slightly recovered from the devastating loss in Assembly elections in the last three months. The Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP are likely to have a neck and neck fight in the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the coming elections.

Alliance / Party

February 2014 Survey estimate

BJP

2-4

AAP

2-4

Congress

0-2

ABP News – Nielsen Opinion Poll – Uttar Pradesh

The latest ABP News – Nielsen opinion poll has projected a further strengthening of Bhartiya Janta Paty’s hold in Uttar Pradesh. With barely a few months in existence, AAP has manged to command 5% of the vote share in UP, with 1 seat, the poll has predicted. In the January poll, AAP was projected to win 2 seats with 6% vote share.

Alliance / Party

2009 Actual

February 2014 Survey estimate

Congress-RLD

21

11

BJP

10

40

SP

23

14

BSP

20

13

AAP

-

1

Others

1

For detailed survey report click here

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