Bihar Exit Poll 2020: All eyes are set on exit polls as the polling for the third and final phase of Bihar Assembly elections will conclude this evening at 4 PM. The embargo on exit polls will be lifted at 6.30 pm, as the Election Commission of India (ECI) has imposed a complete ban on post-poll prediction telecast during the Vidhan Sabha elections in Bihar and by-elections to 54 Assembly seats across 10 states. Also Read - Rajya Sabha Seat Left Vacant After Ram Vilas Paswan's Death May Not go to LJP Again - This is Why
Once the polling will conclude, various national news channels will release their predictions about the winner based on exit polls. The post-poll survey is based on responses of people who have exercised their franchise. Also Read - Bihar's New Education Minister Struggles to Recite National Anthem, Trolled on Twitter | Watch
How exit polls are conducted? Also Read - 13 Out of 15 Bihar Ministers Are Crorepatis, Highest From BJP: Report
A post-voting poll conducted soon after a voter walks out after casting his/her vote is known as an exit poll. It aims at predicting the result based on the information collected from voters. They are conducted by a number of organizations. Sampling is the basic step to predict exit polls.
Exit polls vs opinion polls
An opinion poll is conducted to ascertain the public opinion before voting, while an exit poll happens right after polling. Opinion poll asks the voters, whom they have planned to vote but an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted.
How reliable are exit polls? What did 2015 Bihar exit polls say?
Time and again, these exit polls have proved wrong. In 2015, all pollsters, except Axis APM had underestimated the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance– JDU+RJD+Cong) and had predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led NDA.
However, when the final results came the grand alliance stunned all by winning 180 seats altogether of the total 243 seats.
While the Axis APM predicted 169-183 seats for the Grand Alliance and 58-70 for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Today’s Chanakya had given a 2/3rd majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA with 144-166 seats.
The agency later issued an apology saying, “We sincerely apologise to all our friends and well-wishers for not able to predict Bihar. Congratulations to the winning alliance.”
Besides, NDTV and the India Today-Cicero had also predicted an absolute majority for the NDA.
What actually happened on the result day?
The much-maligned Lalu Prasad’s RJD had emerged as the single biggest party by bagging 80 seats followed closely by Nitish Kumar’s JD-U with 71 seats. The Congress had grabbed 27 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s three allies — the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) — together bagged only six seats while the saffron party had won just 53 seats.