Assembly Election Results 2018: Each minute the markets are getting tensed as the counting in assembly elections show ‘ache din’ not coming for BJP. What has happened is that both Sensex and Nifty are on hotbed by losing more than 500 points and 150 points respectively, as exit polls indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi government will not see a big win in these assembly elections whose votes are being counted at present.Also Read - Yearender 2018: From Losing Grip Over Hindi Heartland to Vajpayee's Demise, How 2018 Turned Nightmarish For BJP
With today’s trends showing Congress leading in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the problems for BJP and markets have increased. BJP is facing anti-incumbency in all three major states Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The other two states whose elections results will be announced are Telangana and Mizoram. Also Read - Assembly Elections 2018: Congress Chief Ministers to Discuss Cabinet With Party Chief Rahul Gandhi
It is quite clear, that both Congress and BJP do not stand a chance in Telangana and Mizoram as citizens have voted heavily for their local parties namely Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Mizo National Front. Also Read - Assembly Election Results Not in BJP's Favour, But Cannot be Linked With 2019 Lok Sabha Polls: Amit Shah
In Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Congress is in lead with high margins. In these two states, Congress led by Rahul Gandhi is leading in 101 seats and 57 seats, compared to that of BJP, which is leading in 85 seats and 25 seats respectively.
Interestingly, the only hope which was left for a BJP win was in Madhya Pradesh. Looks like even that will be snatched away.
Before 1030 hours, BJP had a small lead in Madhya Pradesh, leading in 112 seats, higher by 2 seats from Congress, which has 110 seats. But that changed as tables have turned, now Congress has taken lead even in MP with 116 seats while BJP has 101 seats.
Be that as it may, if a BJP win ultimately comes in Madhya Pradesh, then markets are going to react positively on the outcome.
If BJP wins MP and Chattisgarh: Its Positive and Nifty to touch 10500-10600 again. Similar is the case of Sensex as well.
According to Standard Chattered, Investors are expected to remain risk averse ahead of the outcome of key state elections that may set the tone ahead of the national ballot in 2019. Out of the five, the outcomes of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are considered the most crucial barometers of people’s acceptance of the policies of the NDA government at the Centre.
Coming back to MP, the BJP has been in power for the last 15 years and is facing high anti-incumbency, are likely to see a close finish.
The BJP party during the elections have also focused on specific infrastructure projects like large greenfield roads in MP, apart from farm loan waivers, employment and pensioners.
Hence, a Madhya Pradesh win for BJP is a must for markets to rebound.