Rs 323000000000: China and Pakistan will benefit most from US tariffs; India will lose huge amount of money in a year

Exports in the sectors of India that employ more people might go down by 70%.

Written by: Tahir Qureshi Edited by: Tahir Qureshi

Updated: August 26, 2025, 11:51 PM IST

Share

Share Article

• Facebook
• WhatsApp
• X
• Email
• Telegram
• Linkedin

https://www.india.com/business/china-pakistan-will-benefit-most-from-us-tariffs-india-will-lose-rs-323000000000-in-a-year-donald-trump-gtri-vietnam-mexico-turkey-nepal-guatemala-kenya-8036416/ Copy

New Delhi: The US has decided to impose a tariff of 50% on goods coming from India. This rule will come into effect from August 27, 2025. This can cause great difficulty for India in exports. US President Donald Trump’s administration has also released a draft of this. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), this tariff will affect India’s exports of $ 60.2 billion.

Now the question is, who will benefit in this situation? The answer is, countries like China, Vietnam and Mexico. According to the Times of India, these countries will be able to sell more of those things in the US, which are being taxed more than in India. Exports in the sectors of India that employ more people might go down by 70%.

Challenge for India’s economy

GTRI believes that this move by America is a big challenge for India’s economy. This will affect about 66% of the total exports from India to America, which is about $ 86.5 billion! Therefore, India will have to make some changes to save its economy. Also, it must be seen that people keep getting jobs, and India’s industry also continues to function properly.

There will be a big loss in a year

India’s exports to America might go down drastically. It is estimated that it will fall from $ 86.5 billion in the financial year 2025 to $ 49.6 billion in the financial year 2026. That is, there will be a reduction of exports of $ 36.9 billion (Rs 3.23 lakh crore) in a year.

According to GTRI, there will be no tax on 30% of exports ($ 27.6 billion). At the same time, 4% (3.4 billion dollars) of auto parts will be taxed at 25%. But 66% (60.2 billion dollars) of goods such as clothes, gems, jewellery, shrimp, carpets and furniture will be taxed at 50%. Due to this high tax, Indian goods will become expensive and will sell less. Due to this, exports in these sectors can fall by 70% and it can reach 18.6 billion dollars. Overall, exports to America can decrease by 43% and many people might lose their jobs.

These countries will benefit

The goods that India sells in America employ many people. If exports decrease, many people will lose their jobs. This can also reduce India’s role in the supply chain around the world. Countries like China, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, Pakistan, Nepal, Guatemala and Kenya can benefit from this. These countries can make their place in the market for a long time, even if the tax is reduced later.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The US will impose a tax of 50% on goods coming from India starting from August 27, 2025.
• A report by the GTRI says this tax will affect India’s exports of $ 60.2 billion.
• Countries like China, Vietnam and Mexico will benefit in this situation.
• Exports in the sectors of India that employ more people can be reduced by up to 70%.

This will affect about 66% of the total exports from India to America, which is about $ 86.5 billion! Therefore, India will have to make some changes to save its economy. Also, it must be seen that people keep getting jobs, and India’s industry also continues to function properly.