New Delhi: The ongoing Covid second wave is threatening India’s economic growth. India’s GDP growth rate may fall to 9.8 per cent, if the ferocious second wave of Coronavirus infection peaks by May-end. However, if the pandemic peak is reached by June-end, then the GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 8.2 per cent. So far, the base GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2022 is pegged at 11 per cent, with risk firmly tilted downwards, IANS said citing a Crisil report. Also Read - This Video of a Bride Sitting on the Groom's Lap to Pose for a Picture is Going Viral, Netizens Love it | WATCH
India Inc’s revenue growth is projected at 15 per cent for fiscal 2022 on a low base of two years in base case and moderate scenario. However, in alternate severe scenario, the growth is pegged at 10-12 per cent, the Crisil report says. Also Read - Sachin Tendulkar Pips Kumar Sangakkara to be The Greatest Test Batsman in 21st Century
“Rising costs could pose headwinds to companies as they recover in specific sectors,” it said. Also Read - 'Reconcile With BJP Before It's Too Late': Shiv Sena MLA Under ED Scanner Writes to Uddhav Thackeray
Restrictions, in terms of number of days, are less compared with fiscal 2021 so far, though is still evolving. Lockdowns are less restrictive for economic activity and are concentrated in the most-hit states.
The Crisil report noted that the first half of fiscal year 2022 would be supported by a base effect but it would be clouded by the pandemic’s spread. The recent surge in Covid-19 cases has led to high-frequency indicators showing some softening.
However, the second half would be led by better-spread economic growth, owing to increased inoculations and better adaptability to the pandemic, which would support sectors that are lagging.
“Also, H2 should see stronger global growth, supporting India’s exports to an extent,” it said.