Trump will be forced to reduce tariff by 15%, experts make big claim, say this about India

The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on India has put New Delhi in a strategic dilemma.

New Delhi: The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the economic think tank, said on Friday, 15 August, that India is facing tough choices in responding to heavy tariffs from the USA.

What did the GTRI say about US tariffs?

The GTRI said that whether it is to negotiate with the US regarding tariffs or to retaliate, diversify export markets or give trade concessions like stopping Russian oil imports, each option has its own advantages and disadvantages.

The GTRI said that India is celebrating its Independence Day this year under the shadow of a serious trade confrontation with the USA.

Why is India in a strategic dilemma?

The Trump administration’s decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on most Indian goods, in addition to the existing Most Favored Nation (MFN) duty, has put India in a strategic dilemma. This could reshape its trade, energy and diplomatic position.

What are the options for India?

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said, “New Delhi has limited options. These include negotiations, retaliation, diversification of markets or stopping the purchase of Russian oil for tariff relief. Each option has its own advantages and disadvantages.”

He further said that India will need structural reforms and aggressive trade diplomacy to withstand high tariffs and diversify exports to Europe, ASEAN, Africa, West Asia and South America.

How much loss will be compensated?

He said that the gains in the first two years will only be able to compensate for $10-15 billion of the $50 billion loss. If US tariffs increase consumer prices and unemployment in the US, domestic political pressure may force the Trump administration to cut tariffs by about 15 per cent for all countries.

What can India do to raise awareness about tariffs?

“India’s best role here is to quietly highlight the cost of tariffs to the American voters,” Srivastava said. He further said that in an era when economic power is being used as a weapon, survival does not mean avoiding confrontation. He said, “It is about choosing the right battles, anticipating the next move and playing for long-term victory.”