India just one step away from matching China’s economy by…, NITI Aayog advisor reveals game-changing strategy; ‘If India maintains…’

The IMF noted that India’s per capita income has doubled in the last 10 years from around USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to about USD 2,880 in 2025.

India’s economy is growing faster than ever, and big changes are on the way. According to Dr. Arvind Virmani, a top advisor at NITI Aayog, India is all set to climb the global economic ladder. In a recent TV interview, he said that India could become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027 or 2028, overtaking Germany, which currently holds that spot. He also mentioned that by the end of 2025, India is on track to surpass Japan and become the fourth-largest economy. This prediction matches what the IMF said in its April report. The IMF noted that India’s GDP is expected to reach USD 4.19 trillion by 2025,  bringing it very close to moving ahead of Japan in global rankings.

“We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy, and this is not my data—it’s IMF data,” Niti Aayog’s chief executive officer BVR Subrahmanyam said during a press briefing on May 24, 2025.

“It is only US, China, Germany, which are larger than India and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we will be the third largest economy,” he added.

India could be on the same level as China by 2050

Dr. Arvind Virmani has said that if India’s economy keeps growing at a steady rate of 6 to 6.5 per cent every year for the next 25 years, then by 2050, India could be on the same level as China. He also highlighted the importance of the upcoming trade agreement between India and the US, saying it could play a key role in boosting India’s economic growth.

Talking about the next few years, he said that clearing up the confusion around tariffs is very important. These uncertainties are currently hurting international trade. In a conversation with news agency PTI, Dr. Virmani added that India is already on its way to becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy. He personally believes this could happen by the end of 2025.

Has India surpass Japan and become the 4th-largest economy?

India has now become the fourth biggest economy in the world, going ahead of Japan, this was claimed by BVR Subrahmanyam, the CEO of NITI Aayog. He said that the current global situation both political and economic is working in India’s favour. “As of now, we are a USD 4 trillion economy. We are already in fourth place,” he said.

He also mentioned that IMF (International Monetary Fund) data shows India has overtaken Japan. Until 2024, India was in fifth place, but now it has moved up. The only countries ahead of India now are the USA, China, and Germany.

Subrahmanyam believes that if India keeps following its current plans and strategies, then in the next 2.5 to 3 years, it can become the third-largest economy in the world.

What did the IMF report say?

The IMF’s April report had already predicted this. It said that by 2025, India’s economy would grow to USD 4.19 trillion, slightly more than Japan’s. So, India would officially become number four in the global ranking.

The IMF also noted that India’s per capita income has doubled in the last 10 years from around USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to about USD 2,880 in 2025.

However, the IMF also mentioned that India’s economy is expected to grow at 6.2% in 2025-26, which is a bit slower than the previous estimate of 6.5 per cent. This slight slowdown is mainly because of global trade issues and uncertainty around the world.