India’s Q3 GDP Numbers To Be Out Today: Past Performance, What To Expect & More

Indian economy had expanded to 13.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, contributed mostly by the post-pandemic economic boom. It further contracted to 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter.

New Delhi: The government of India will release India’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter of the current financial year (FY22-23) today. In the previous quarter ended November 2022, the GDP growth was recorded at 6.3 per cent. The numbers for the previous quarter are expected to be out by today evening.

Most analysts have predicted that the aggressive rate hikes which the Reserve Bank of India started in May 2022 will definitely have an impact on the numbers this quarter as well.

“High-frequency indicators are looking pretty strong for Q4 of FY23,” said Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of emerging markets, Asia (excluding China), economics, Barclays. “Indeed, India’s economy continues to do well in key services and agriculture on the domestic front, while manufacturing remains the only area with visible weakness.”

Q3 FY23 GDP Growth Estimates

As per an ET poll of analysts, India’s growth may come down to about 5 per cent in Q3 FY23. The breakdown of the poll is as below.

• India Ratings & Research has predicted a 5 per cent increase.
• SBI has predicted a 4.6 per cent increase.
• ICRA has predicted 5.1 per cent increase.
• Barclays has predicted 5 per cent increase.
• QuantEco has predicted 5 per cent increase.
• Axis Capital has predicted 5.1 per cent increase.
• Axis Bank has predicted 4.6 per cent increase.
• Kotak Institutional Securities has predicted 4.3 per cent increase.
• Bank of Baroda has predicted 4.6 per cent increase.
• Crisil has predicted 5.2 per cent increase.

As per a Reuters poll of 42 economists, the GDP growth in the October-December quarter is likely to have slipped to 4.6 per cent.

Indian economy had expanded to 13.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, contributed mostly by the post-pandemic economic boom. It further contracted to 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter.

The Reuters monthly survey also showed that growth in India was expected to slow further to 4.4 per cent in the current quarter, and across 2023/24 would average 6 per cent, lower than the official government estimate published on 31 January 2023.