New Delhi, August 1: The unemployment rate in India this year will remain at 3.5 per cent, while that of China would increase from 4.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent, predicted International Labour Organisation (ILO). Moreover, 77 per cent of the labour market would remain ‘vulnerable’ in India as against 33 per cent in China.
The ILO released ‘The World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2018’ which provides an analysis of the present state of the labour market including the trends in unemployment, vulnerable employment, and working poverty. As per the 2018 report, the economic growth in Asian and Pacific region is expected to remain at 5.5 per cent for a period of two years, while in India a 7.4 per cent growth is expected in 2018 as against 6.7 per cent in 2017.
The World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2018 report also notes that “while there has been strong job creation in some ICT-intensive services, notably in India, a significant portion of the jobs created in the services sector over the past couple of decades have been in traditional low-value-added services, where informality and vulnerable forms of employment are often dominant.”
Informality which affects almost 90 per cent of workers in India, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal with a majority working in the agricultural sector also remains pervasive in non-agriculture sectors, such as construction, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and food services. The high incidence of informality makes it difficult to reduce the incidence of working poverty especially in the South and South-Eastern parts of Asia.
The report observed that rigidities in the labour market were responsible for preventing modern manufacturing industries from generating employment opportunities. Therefore the vulnerable employment rate in India continues to stay high at 77 per cent from 2017 to 2019.
Globally, out of the 1.4 billion people estimated to be in vulnerable employment this year, about 394 million or more than a quarter are from India, stated the ILO data. Moreover, the report has predicted that the working poverty is likely to decline over the next two years in Asia and the Pacific.