The Uttar Pradesh mandate might prove to be the decisive one in the general election 2014. This is where the destiny of who sits where in the Lok Sabha elections can be decided. The contestant’s worrying might be palpable, if not among the voters of Baghpat, Bijnor, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budhnagar, Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bulandshahar and Aligarh.
Muzaffarnagar is actually at the heart of this and its sugar rich farm lands communally charged last year might be the eye-catcher in the current Lok Sabha Polls of 2014. At one area, there are thousands of homeless Muslims and on the other the angry Jats. It was recently pointed out that Jats might be saffron-ied this time given the Modi wave. Mayawati’s BSP might lose the rock solid Dalit vote-bank, with indications that some of them may vote on the ”Hindu” lines.
The BJP clearly has the edge here. But there may be the surprise from the Congress-RLD alliance and Mayawati’s BSP with the benefit-of-doubt can make a good fight back as well. Congress’ last minute move to extend OBC reservation for Jats might also set the wave in their favour.
In Ghaziabad AAP might be the story of the past. There is clear contest between BJP’s former Army Chief – V K Singh who was involved in the retirement age controversy, a seat from which Rajnath Singh opted out and Congress’ Raj Babbar. On the other hand, BSP’s Mukul Upadhaya might give him a tough fight in the contest. In 2012 Assembly Election, BSP won five out of six Assembly seats. The residents learnt a lesson for casting an ‘outsider’ in the last election in 2009. The Upadhyay politics tied up with the local environment might turn the table on, as this time; voters might look for the candidate than the party.
Similar surprising stories are in Bijnor, Meerut, and Baghpat. RLD chief and Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh’s fate will be decided in Baghpat and he’s certainly not having it very easy. On the other hand, RLD face in Bijnor is actress Jaya Prada, who can prove to be the one woman show and the RLD’s safest bet.
It is Congress-RLD candidates who are tuning into apex court pronouncement on Jat reservation, the glimpse of cynicism on the voter’s face is real, and they understand the move over a matter of influence. Cine star Nagma, the Congress candidate in Meerut, exhausted from her campaigning, tells her manager to find out the details as well.
Three communities, the Jat, Muslims and Dalits, will decide who will be the winners here. As for the ruling Samajwadi Party, going by the 2009 record, who have won four out of ten Lok Sabha seats here, does not seem to be dominating this time.