EXPLAINED: The Numbers In Pakistan Assembly And The Options Before Imran Khan

The no-confidence motion against Imran Khan's government was submitted by the opposition parties on March 8, and it was presented and tabled before the National Assembly on Monday. The opposition is confident that its motion would be carried as several PTI lawmakers have come out in the open against PM Imran Khan.

New Delhi: Pakistani opposition political parties have introduced a no-confidence vote in parliament seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan, largely on accusations of economic mismanagement. And the bid to oust Khan got a boost when Khan saw his majority in the National Assembly slip away after the Muttahidda Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), the key ally on whom depended the government’s survival, walked out of the coalition to join the swelling opposition ranks ahead of the no-trust vote. MQM-P’s decision effectively snatched Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) majority in the lower house of Parliament, leaving the coalition government with 164 lawmakers, eight short of the 172 required for Imran to stay in government.

How does the no-confidence vote work?

A prime minister is elected by a majority of the lower house National Assembly, which has 342 members. A candidate needs a majority of legislators, 172, to vote for him to become prime minister. That is the same number of votes against him in a no-confidence vote needed to oust him and dissolve his cabinet. So, Khan could survive a no-confidence vote even if he got fewer votes than the opposition but only if the latter did not get the 172 votes that make up a majority in the 342-seat house.

What happens after the vote?

1. If Khan loses the vote, parliament can continue to function until its five-year tenure ends in August 2023, after which a general election is due within 60 days.
2. There will be a vote in the National Assembly to elect a new prime minister, who would serve until the next elections.
3. Candidates can be put forward by any party with legislators in the assembly.
4. The new prime minister can call a general election immediately, without waiting until 2023.

What is Khan’s survival strategy?

Khan has strictly directed his party members to either abstain or not attend the National Assembly session on the day of voting on the no-confidence motion against him

Absenteeism of party member would not hurt Khan’s cause because he doesn’t need to win; he just needs to ensure that the opposition cannot get the 172 votes needed to pass the no-confidence motion.

Khan has also filed a petition in the courts seeking lifetime electoral bans against on those found to have broken ranks, in a bid to dissuade potential dissidents.

The timeline of the vote?

The no-confidence motion against Imran Khan’s government was submitted by the opposition parties on March 8,  and it was presented and tabled before the National Assembly on Monday. The opposition is confident that its motion would be carried as several PTI lawmakers have come out in the open against PM Imran Khan.

The speaker of the National Assembly has to carry out the vote no sooner than three days and no later than seven days after the motion is tabled.

The earliest the vote can happen is Thursday. The latest, by most accounts, is Monday.