New Delhi: The Lok Sabha Elections 2019 have been announced and poll pundits are out to predict the results. On May 23, it would be known to all but before that rumour mills, wild speculations, fabricated opinion polls would rule the roost.
The world’s largest elections will certainly go these 3 ways.
Lok Sabha elections 2019 State-wise Schedule: Check When Your State is Voting
1. BJP will not be able to repeat its 2014 performance: Division of votes among regional parties in Uttar Pradesh played a key factor that gave the BJP an edge. It won 72 seats, the highest ever in Uttar Pradesh. Now, with Akhilesh-Mayawati joining hands, the tally would fall drastically for the BJP. Poll pundits are giving it in the range of 15 to 30 seats. The 40 to 50 seats less in the largest state that sends 80 Lok Sabha members would be an unrecoverable loss to the ruling party. In Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi, it would lose a few more seats. In Bihar, it has tied up with the JD(U) and LJP, where it had to concede a few seats to the coalition partners. The BJP is contesting on 17 seats wherein it had won 22 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has little presence in Southern states except Karnataka. For instance, the Congress-JD(S) would restrict any gain to the BJP. In 2014, the BJP had won 17 seats in Karnataka and the Congress 9. In Northeast states, it may gain a few seats, it is expected to do better in West Bengal and Maharashtra. But the gains are small and loss bigger. So, It doesn’t look like the BJP may reach to the magic mark of 272 on its own, however, in 2014, it had won 282 seats alone.
2. Congress will improve its tally: Indian National Congress, the grand old party, lost its face after it won only 44 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. But a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. The Congress won back 4 important states—Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. It was also able to trump the BJP in Karnataka, forging a post-poll alliance with the JD(S). In Gujarat, it improved its tally, winning 77 seats, a gain of 16 seats from the last assembly elections in 2012. The recent victories in state polls would certainly benefit the Congress and help it come out of the slumber. With better alliances and pan-India presence, the Congress will certainly double its current figure on May 23.
3. Regional parties would rule the roost: The biggest formation outside the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led UPA is the BSP-SP-RLD alliance in the Uttar Pradesh that has the Lion’s share of 80 seats out of 543. The Mayawati-Akhilesh together has tested the success in bypolls, winning three Lok Sabha seats—Gorakhpur, Kairana and Phulpur. In 2014, the BSP couldn’t win a single seat, while the SP had won only 5 seats. Fighting together, they may win between 25 and 30 seats each. In states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, the regional parties would hold the key and might play crucial role in government formation at the Centre.
Let’s witness the thrill of a high-octane campaign for now and wait for May 23, 2019.
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