The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win 242 Lok Sabha seats, 30 short of the majority mark, according to an exit poll conducted by Neta-NewsX.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could win 164 seats while the BSP-SP-RLD Mahagathbandhan could win 43 seats, said the Neta-NewsX exit poll.
It also said that with no party reaching the majority mark on its own, outfits such as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Mahagathbandhan are set to be the kingmakers in 2019.
The Neta-NewsX exit poll shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win 202 seats (30 per cent decline over 2014), while the Congress is likely to manage 107 seats (140 per cent increase over 2014). It also says that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to draw a blank in Delhi.
“Over 47 lakh voters participated in the Neta exit poll while over 2.5 crore voters participated in its opinion poll across all the 542 constituencies. These results are a statistical derivation based on the two,” said Neta-NewsX.
The exit poll predicted that the Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal Mahagathbandhan will emerge as the third largest force in the Lok Sabha with 43 seats, while the Left parties may get only 5 seats, down from the 10 they had won in 2014.
It also said that the BJP will suffer a huge loss in Uttar Pradesh.
“The BJP, which had won 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014, is set to suffer huge loss at the hands of the Mahagathbandhan. The saffron party is expected to win only 33 seats this time, a loss of more than 50 per cent over 2014. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to win 41 seats (BSP 22, SP 20 and RLD 1) and the Congress 4 seats,” the exit poll said.
It also predicted Congress resurgence in all the states where it is locked in a direct contest with the BJP.
“The Congress is likely to witness a resurgence in all the states where it is fighting the BJP directly, which include Assam, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra.
“However, one interesting thing to note is that states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which recently went the Congress way in the Assembly elections, seem to be voting strongly for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, highlighting the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in these regions,” the exit poll said.
To ensure a pertinent sample size, the Neta app has used multiple mediums like the app, IVR calls and SMS to gather data on evolving political inclinations, said Pratham Mittal, Founder, Neta App.
“This has been a very close fight. With no one party expected to form the government this time, we are back to the era of coalitions. As per our data, the expected post-poll alliances show that both the NDA and the UPA have an opportunity to form the government though the NDA is much closer to the 272 mark. It would be very interesting to watch the post-poll alliances that the Congress and the BJP are able to form after the election results are out,” Mittal said.