New Delhi: If there’s one thing all post-poll surveys agreed on, it is the return of NDA. Surveys gave the NDA anything between 287 and 369 seats.
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Keeping the score of 369 for NDA in mind, a leading portal said that there were 78 swing seats where the vote-share gap between the winner and the runner-up is less than 3 %.
It said that of these 78 swing seats, NDA was likely to be ahead in 37 (BJP in 33, allies in four) while the UPA was expected to have an upper hand in 17 (Congress in 13, allies in four).
So it is these 78 seats that need to be watched. Most of these seats are spread over politically volatile states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal where many regional parties are in the fray. A win by a regional party could upset the equations for national parties.
If the results went against the BJP and it lost all the 33 seats, it should still be ahead of the magic number of 285.
However, the picture would turn gloomy for the Congress if it lost all its 13 swing seats because then it was projected to get just 38 seats.
In the other case, if the BJP won all the 33, its tally would shoot up to 318. It must be noted that no single political party has crossed the 300-mark on its own since 1984 when the Congress won more than 400 seats, after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
Of the 78 swing seats, the other parties which are projected to have a slight edge over the others are Mahagathbandhan (seven), Trinamool (five), YSRCP (three), TRS(1) and Others (8).
As far as states are concerned. UP and West Bengal are reported to witness 24 close battles. Of the 14 such seats in UP, while the SP-BSP-RLD has an edge in seven, the BJP has a clear advantage in the remaining seven.
Again, if the gathbandhan loses all its seven seats, it would be reduced to single digit, suggest exit poll figures.
Interestingly, if the SP-BSP alliance loses all these seven tough seats, it would score in single digit despite receiving close to 40 per cent vote share, according to the exit poll findings.
In West Bengal, the BJP is in a close fight with the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in five seats. If the TMC loses all these five seats to the BJP, the saffron party would have an edge ahead of the Assembly elections in a couple of years.