Guwahati, Mar 25: Elections are due in the frontier state of Assam. With barely 10 days remaining for the polling to initiate, a fresh opinion poll has surfaced which suggests a hung assembly. The survey released by media agency AVC reveals that Congress would win only 40 seats, far short from majority. On the other-hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which appeared as the prime challenger would fail to take its tally ahead of Congress. The opinion poll predicts 32-35 seats for the saffron party. Also Read - 'Forever in Our Hearts': Twitter Fondly Remembers Sushma Swaraj on Her First Death Anniversary

BJP’s ally for the upcoming polls, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) would bag 8-10 seats, whereas, the third coalition partner of their alliance – Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) would win 8-9 seats. The total number of seats which would be bagged by the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance is, thereby, predicted to be 52-54 seats. To form a majority, the alliance needs to win at least 64 seats in the 126-member assembly. (ALSO READ: Assam Assembly Elections 2016: BJP promises to strip voting rights of state’s 10 per cent Muslims if elected to power) Also Read - BJP Sarpanch Shot Dead by Terrorists in J&K's Kulgam, 2nd Attack Within 2 Days

According to the survey, Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) would emerge as the kingmaker. The pro-Muslim outfit is predicted to win at least 25 seats. If the opinion polls are a reflection of the actual result, then Badruddin Ajmal’s claim would be validated. “No government in Assam could be formed without the AIUDF,” he had said while speaking to a leading English daily. Also Read - Assam Lockdown News: 7-day Total Shutdown Imposed in Tinsukia, Makum From Today | Essential Services Allowed  

Here are the predictions of the opinion poll:

Indian National Congress

40

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

32-35

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)

25

Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)

8-10

Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)

8-9

Results of Assembly Elections 2011

The opinion predictions should be compared with the results of the previous assembly elections. Congress emerged as the strongest electoral outfit, forming a government with its own majority. The AIUDF was at the second spot, whereas, the BJP was non-essential player in the state’s politics.

Indian National Congress

78

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)

18

Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)

12

Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)

09

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

05

Trinamool Congress (TMC)

01

Independents

02

TOTAL

126

Congress’ graph is expected to dip from 78 to 40. Here is where the party losing out to:

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is facing an anti-incumbency of 15 years. During his past five year tenure, Gogoi is accused of adopting a soft stand on illegal Bangladeshi immigrants with an aim to consolidate his vote bank. This has severely hurt his prospects among the Bengali Hindus and ethnic tribes residing in the region. The Bengali Hindus amount to 15 percent of voting population. This section of electorates is expected to go with BJP-AGP-BPF alliance.

Not only have the Hindus turned away from Congress, but a section of Muslim community also hold him as a pragmatic communal, who has used the the Muslim electorate as merely his vote bank in the past 15 years. The politics of victimhood as practiced by AIUDF will severely haunt the Congress in the upcoming elections. Thus, the share of Congress’ vote among the state’s 34 per cent Muslims is shrinking.

BJP is gaining as compared to 2011 polls, but why did the ‘Modimania’ trickle down?

According to AVC survey, the voters who had casted their mandate in favour of BJP in 2014 general elections are now unhappy with their erstwhile electoral decision. There is general discontent with the performance of Narendra Modi-government for the dwellers in Assam. Voters claim that there is a huge difference between what was promised in the run-up to 2014 polls and what has been delivered on-ground by Narendra Modi in the past 24 months.

Lok Sabha election results (Assam)

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

07

Indian National Congress

03

All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)

03

Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)

0

Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)

0

Trinamool Congress (TMC)

0

Independents

0

TOTAL

126

BJP captured a total of 51 per cent of votes. However, a large section of those voters are now expected to shift their electoral loyalty. The tea-garden workers, who have traditionally been Congress supporters are expected to once again cast their vote in favour of Tarun Gogoi. 70 per cent of tea-garden workers, the AVC survey predicts, would vote for Congress. For the remaining 30 per cent of voter belonging to this section, BJP would have to battle with the Left parties.

Another influential set of voters who are predicted to sway away from the BJP are those of Ahom community. 15 per cent of the electoral population, this is the ethnic community to which Tarun Gogoi belongs.

Unable to consolidate their grip on these two section of electorates, could be the most crucial reason for BJP to miss this bright opportunity of forming the government for first time in the frontier state.