New Delhi, April 14: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released the the first monsoon forecast for the year 2016. With nearly 2 months remaining for monsoon to reach India’s south-western coast, IMD has turned every drought-struck Indian optimistic as it forecast predicts an ‘above normal’ rainfall. IMD chief D Sivananda Pai claimed that 106 per cent rainfall would be received during the period of June to September. The percentage points are calculated by comparing the expected centimetres of rainfall with the Long Period Average (LPA) average of past 50 years. While the LPA is 89 cms, IMD expects a total of 94 cm of rainfall this monsoon.

However, before rejoicing over the early predictions of IMD, one should take a look at IMD’s accuracy based upon previous years. Statistics reveal that the ‘April forecast’ of IMD is proved to be wrong 70 per cent of the time. Even the final forecast released during June-July has proved to be incorrect 60 per cent of the time. The prediction is inaccurate to the extent that if the IMD says that the forthcoming monsoon would bring deficient rainfall, it turns out to be a season of abundant downpour, and vica versa. (ALSO READ: Above normal monsoon this year: IMD)

To validate the above point, let us consider the following statistics:

YearIMD ForecastActual Rainfall
200693%96%
200795%105%
200899%99%
200996%77%
201098%102%
201198%102%
2012102%98%
201398%106%
201495%88%
201593%85%
2016106%

IMD has consistently failed since the past three years. In 2014 and 2015, it had expected ‘normal rainfall’. But the actual rainfall was way too ‘deficit’. However, IMD head Sivananda Pai is quite firm on making the accurate prediction this year since the El Nino phenomenon ceases to exist.