New Delhi: Almost all exit polls yesterday predicted landslide victory for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with more than 50 seats in Delhi Assembly election 2020. But how reliable are these post-poll survey verdicts?
In 2013 and in 2015, numerous exit polls had underestimated the AAP. Most of the post-poll surveys, in 2013, had predicted either a hung mandate or comfortable majority for the BJP. However, when the final results came the Kejriwal-led party stunned all by winning 28 of the total 70 seats in its debut election.
Chanakya’s poll was the most accurate about AAP’s performance. It had predicted 31 seats for AAP. Whereas India Today-ORG, Times Now-C Voter and ABP-Nielsen had wrongly predicted majority for BJP and 15-24 seats for Congress. India Today-ORG, in 2013 had also claimed that AAP would not even touch double digits.
In 2015, all exit polls had predicted victory for Kejriwal’s party with 35-45 seats but none of them got it right about AAP’s thumping victory. The party had won 67 out of 70 seats in that election.
Apart from Delhi, exit polls had predicted verdicts of several elections incorrectly. Last year during Haryana Assembly elections, many pollsters had predicted a clear majority for BJP but the final results were complete opposite.
In 2004 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls had wrongly predicted majority for BJP-led NDA coalition. In 2009, they had predicted defeat for Congress-led UPA.
However, in 2014 most of the exit polls were right as they had predicted an absolute majority (300+) for BJP. Today’s Chanakya had projected 340 seats for NDA and 291 for the BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
2020 Exit Polls Predictions
This year, almost all exit polls have predicted landslide victory for AAP, and little change in the fortunes of the Congress, which had ruled the city for 15 years and drew a blank in the 2015 Vidhan Sabha chunav
A survey by ABP-C-Voter has predicted massive victory for AAP with 49-63 seats. BJP+ and Congress+ are projected to win 5-19 and 1-2 seats respectively.
The India Today-Axis poll forecast 59-68 seats for the AAP and 2-11 for the BJP.
The Times Now-Ipsos exit poll predicted that Kejriwal will retain the crown of capital city with the AAP winning 47 seats against 23 for the BJP.
The Republic-Jan ki Baat survey gave the AAP 48-61 seats and the BJP 9-21 seats.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Cicero predicted 52-64 seats for the AAP and 6-16 for the BJP. An exit poll put out by Neta-NewsX said the AAP may win 53-57 seats and the BJP 11-17.
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BJP Rubbishes Exit Polls
The Bharatiya Janata Party has rejected exit polls predictions, saying that ‘exit polls are not exact polls’.
“Exit Polls have taken the analysis of two booths per Assembly Constituency. This analysis is based just on 0.12 or 0.15 per cent considering that there are over 13,000 booths. Second, this analysis is based till 4 or 5 pm after which 11 to 15 per cent votes have been polled. So we think that our voter comes out of home after lunch. So these exit polls do not include that 11-15 per cent votes,” BJP leader Meenakshi Lekhi stated.
Besides, BJP’s Delhi unit Chief Manoj Tiwari had also dismissed the post poll verdicts and declared that all the forecasts ‘would fail’ and his party would win comfortably.
“All these exit polls will fail. Save this tweet. BJP will form a government in Delhi with 48 seats. Don’t look for an excuse to blame EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines),” Manoj Tiwari tweeted.
What happened in 2015
In the 2015 assembly polls, the Aam Aadmi Party had won 54.3 per cent of the vote, the BJP won 32 per cent and the Congress managed just 9.6 per cent. Of the total 70 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, AAP bagged 67, BJP got 3 and Congress 0.