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Manmath Nayak
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India COVID Fourth Wave Latest Update: At a time when several countries, including China, are witnessing a massive upsurge in coronavirus cases, many in India expressed concern about fourth COVID wave in the coming months. Their concern became serious after Omicron BF.7, which is behind the surge in China, was detected in India last week.
To spell out the concerns of the citizens, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, who is part of the IIT sutra covid model, said that the ‘short-term future does not look good’ but ‘there is no cause for alarm in India’.
Talking about COVID upsurge in China, Agrawal said that the percentage of the naturally immune (immunity acquired via the previous infection) population in China was less than 5% in October-end and less than 20% in November-end. At present, less than 60% of the population has natural immunity.
Saying that only 1 out of 500+ cases are being reported these days, he said this is one reason why the reported numbers are very small. He stated that another reason is that about 30% population is still outside the reach of pandemic.
He stated that the CVID surge stop only when nearly entire population acquires natural immunity. “Our analysis of Omicron wave across countries had shown that natural immunity provides strong protection against infection by any variant,” he stated.
However, Agrawal assured that India has no need to worry at this point as India continues to have > 98% population with natural immunity. “So I do not see any reason for concern. Over time, some percentage will lose natural immunity, and it may cause a small ripple, but it is very unlikely that a significant rise will occur,” he said.
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