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New Delhi, Sept 30: If one goes by the chauvinistic voices on both sides of the border, a full-blown war between India and Pakistan appears to be a stark reality. The political and defence establishment of both the nations have exhibited a stubborn stand over their national pride, and accused each other of provoking military action. While the bilateral ties between India and Pakistan were turned ice-cold in the aftermath of Pathankot air base attack, the rock bottom was struck following the terror attack in Uri, which left 19 Indian soldiers dead. In response to the cross-border strike, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised stiff retaliation, stating that the cross-border attack would not go ‘unpunished’. While critics of Modi, described it as another hollow promise made by him, the Prime Minister proved everyone wrong by giving the army the mandate to conduct surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC). The Indian para commandos entered into the Pakistani-occupied-Kashmir (PoK) and killed nearly 35-40 terrorists, before returning back to the nation, without suffering any casualty.
The surgical strike has rattled the entire military as well as civilian establishment of Pakistan. The call for war is equally strong on both sides of the border. Considering the escalation of friction between the two neighbours, United States of America needed to intervene and recommend both sides to exercise restraint. However, opinion-makers within Pakistan have already described the cross-border attack by India as a large step on the escalation ladder. Backing off from here would only bring great amount of disrepute towards the Nawaz Sharif government, army chief Raheel Sharif, who earned unprecedented amount of popularity following the successful operation Zarb-e-Azb which nearly wiped out the cadres of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from the region of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
How India is bound to win a full-fledged battle against Pakistan?
To begin with, one needs to make a holistic comparison of the defence artilleries and military strength of both India and Pakistan. As seen in Kargil, both the nation could at least show the maturity of not indulging in a nuclear warfare. Without using the catastrophic weapon, both India and Pakistan could give a tough fight to each other. The analysis begins from Indian Navy:
The naval strength of India outnumbers Pakistan. Indian navy is divided into three commands – Western, Southern and Eastern. The battle on the naval front with Pakistan would be fought only by the Western command. If one recalls, the Western command triumphed over Pakistan in the 1971 Indo-Pak war, with the extent of imposing a complete blockade against Karachi. Would the Western command repeat their dominance against Pakistan? Here are the points to analyse:
The navy command on the Western front is equipped with 13 conventional submarines, 14 frigates, 10 aircraft destroyers and two air carriers. Most importantly, the Indian Navy is equipped with one nuclear submarine, which could give it a huge advantage against Pakistan under extreme circumstances. (ALSO READ: Surgical strikes by India in pre-Modi era: What you should know about the less publicised covert operations)
Even during the 71′ war, Indian Navy was found to be technologically advanced as compared to Pakistan. To consider the advancements made by it by 2016, one should consider the strength of the most recently commissioned weapon INS Kochi. The stealth destroyer gives an edge to the Indian Navy against it counterparts in the world. Defence analysts have even described it as better than USS Zumwalt, the guided missile destroyer of US Navy.
Here are the statistics to analyse an India-Pakistan showdown in terms of naval strength:
| Naval Strength | India | Pakistan |
| Total Force | 60,000 | 30,000 |
| Aircraft Carriers | 2 | 0 |
| Aircraft Destroyers | 10 | 0 |
| Frigates | 14 | 10 |
| Corvettes | 26 | 0 |
| Amphibious Warships | 10 | 0 |
| Conventional Submarines | 13 | 8 |
| Nuclear Submarine | 1 | 0 |
The second analysis should begin with the aerial strength both the nations:
Indian Air Force (IAF) is segregated into five different commands, unlike the Indian Navy which is divided into three. The one that would specifically deal will be the Western air command. However, if the situation escalates, the Southwest air command could also join the aerial warfare. Defence analysts are firm that in a state of war with Pakistan, aerial front would be primarily be held by the Western command. But it is bound to be assisted by certain wings of Southwest command.
Indian air force just like the Indian navy is divided into several commands, 5 to be exact; out of these five commands only one (Western air command) is tasked with protection of the North-West India (Indo-Pak border), Western air command is also ‘assisted’ by some wings of the Southern Western air command and the air arm of the Indian navy. Here’s a summary of combat aircraft’s in service with the Indian air force.
As all Indian air force aircraft’s will not participate in a conflict between Indian and Pakistan I think it will be pretty stupid to compare just the numbers, that being said Western air command is still a force to be reckoned with, it is widely considered the largest and the most powerful of all Indian air commands.
The Western and Southwest command, in total, have six spectacular air weapons which could outmatch the aerial defence artillery of Pakistan. This section of air command jointly possess the squadrons of 4 Sukhoi Su-30 MKI, 8 MIG-21, 2 MIG-29, 5 SEPECAT Jaguar and 5 MIG-27. The exact number of squadrons of Mirage 2000 to be used by Western and Southwest command is yet to be ascertained. There is also a possibility that HAL Tejas could be used along with the existing arsenal.
Important to note is that each squadron consists of 18 fighters. Therefore, the actual number of fighters which could be used by India in situation of war against Pakistan would be exponentially higher than the number of squadrons listed above.
Defence analysts have specified MIG-21s to be the weak point of IAF, opining that nearly 80 per cent of the casualties would be caused due to the aging fleet of MIG-21s. Some reports have claimed that HAL Tejas would still take some time to completely replace the MIG-21s.
Here the statistics of India’s aerial strength (figures are conservative estimate):
| Aircraft | Quantity of fighters |
| Sukhoi Su-30 MKI | 242 |
| MIG-27 | 85 |
| SEPACET Jaguar | 145 |
| MIG-29 | 69 |
| MIG-21 | 245 |
| Mirage 2000 | 50 |
Important to note is that SEPECAT Jaguar and MIG-27 would be used only for ground attacks. On the other hand, air combat would be handled through Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and MIG-29.
After going through the air force strength of India, one should take a look at the challenge posed by Pakistani Air Force:
The Pakistani Air Force is divided into three air commands, but there is no division of role, making the segregation purposeless. Due to the narrow width of the nation, all the air commands join any sort of military aggression.
The most striking weapon within the arsenal of Pakistan is the F-16 fighter jets, procured from the United States. Although India’s acquisition of Rafale is said to be its counter, the latter would still need at least 36 months to be part of the Indian Air Force. Defence analysts claim that the air combating power of F-16 has been reduced by US to specifically tailor the needs of Pakistan. Instead, the focus of its strength remains ground strike with maximum precision.
The second most important weapon of the Pakistani arsenal is JF-17. The multirole interceptor could be used for both ground as well as air strikes. However, both F-16 and JF-17 could not match the air combating capability of Sukhoi Su-MK30. Along with Sukhoi, India has MIG-29 which gets characterised as ‘air superiority fighter’. On the other hand, Pakistan does not possess any weapon which could be categorized under ‘air superiority fighter’. Both F-16 and JF-17 are used as multirole interceptors, with their speciality in ground strikes.
Here are the statistics of Pakistan’s aerial strength:
| Aircraft | Quantity of fighters |
| F-16 | 76 |
| JF-17 | 65 |
| F-7 | 185 |
| Mirage 3 | 75 |
| Mirage 5 | 82 |
The Mirage 3 and Mirage 5 face the same problem as India’s MIG-21. The air fleets of both the squadrons are aging and have almost lived their life. The F-7, which Pakistani Air Force aims to use as an interceptor, is also nearing its technical expiry. Procured from China, the F-7 could perform no better than the MIG-21. The entire aerial battle of Pakistan would be based upon its use of JF-17 and F-16. Both are considered to be the top weapon for ground strikes. However, in terms of aerial warfare, both the decorated weapons will fall flat to India’s Sukhoi Su-MK30.
The third and most important analysis would be the conventional army:
Beginning with Indian army, one should note that it is the third largest army in the world, with a total strength of 1.2 million border troopers. Another 1 million personnel are kept reserved.
Tank warfare
Indian army entails the fourth largest tank force unit, placed after Russia , China and United States. Here are the top four categories of India’s tank force:
| Tank | Quantity |
| T-90MS | 2,000+ |
| T-72 | 2,400+ |
| Arjun MK-I | 125 |
| Arjun MK-II | 120 |
The most important tank in India’s arsenal is T-90, procured from Russia. Experts claim that it could counter all other Pakistani tanks in terms of strength and attacking calibre. The T-72s are the second-most important important tanks available for use. Arjun Mk-II, although considered much better than the near-obsolete Arjun Mk-I, it could not fulfill the needs of the army required to enhance its striking capability. The missiles procured from Russia nearly two years back to fit into the Arjun Mk-II tanks failed to fit. The Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is still looking for missiles which could fit the Arjun Mk-II tanks.
On the other hand, here are the tanks available before Pakistan:
| Tank | Quantity |
| Al-Khalid | 300+ |
| T-80UD | 320 |
| Al Zarrar | 600 |
| Type 85 IIAP | 300 |
Pakistan has the 10th largest tank force in the world. The Al-Khalid I is considered to pose a stiff challenge to Arjun Mk-II and T-72. However, it could not outmatch India’s T-90MS. Meanwhile, the Al-Zarrar and T-80UD are equally impressive as the T-72 which India possesses.
Helicopter gunships
To assists the tanks, Indian army also uses helicopter guns, which forms the aerial army. Two forms are helicopters used by Indian army for military assault – Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) and light weight high altitude attack helicopters. The latter will be used in hilly terrain, mostly in the region of PoK. LCH would assists most of tank strikes of the army.
| Helicopter Type | Quantity |
| LCH | 120 |
| HAL Rudra | 60 |
In contrast to the 180 helicopters of India used for combat, Pakistani army has only 51. The helicopters are not segregated for separate use in hilly areas and low altitude regions.
Conventional War
Although the manpower of Pakistani army is nearly half of India (5,00,000 active and 5,50,000 reserved), the country stands slightly on a higher footing in terms of artillery. An average of Indian soldier is only equipped with Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) rifles. On the other hand, an average on ground Pakistani soldier is equipped with Heckler & Koch MP5 (which is the Chinese equivalent of AK-47).
While Pakistani army has regularly stepped up efforts to modernize its combating ability, India has not made any big acquisition of combating guns since the Bofors in 1987. (ALSO READ: Manohar Parrikar chaired Defence Acquisition Council clears proposal worth Rs 1,900 crores)
Pointing out to the state of emergency in India, Lt Gen HS Panag, in a report, said that Indian army has only 3,500 snipers and only a handful of them could pass the standard test of a head-shot at nearly 600-metres and a body -shot at 1000 metres. He further remarked that the army’s training in this regard is ‘flawed’.
Apart from the weapons and ammunition, army is also short of commanding officers and senior military bureaucrats who could call the shots. As of 2015, the total shortage remained at 9,100 officers.
If an analysis of India vs Pakistan in terms of non-nuclear military strength is made, the Indian Navy and Indian Air Force would clearly gain an upper hand over their Pakistani counterparts. But in terms of conventional war, Pakistan could give a stiff fight to India. But moreover, India has an impressive edge over the western neighbour.
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