New Delhi: After flattening the curve, comes the declining of the curve, which will still take some time necessitating an extension of the ongoing lockdown probably beyond May 3 — preferrably till May 16, the chairman of Delhi government’s committee on combatting COVID-19, Dr SK Sarin, has said. “The lockdown will have to be extended till May 16 as that is when the epidemic curve is likely to start declining, which happens after the flattening of the curve,” he said. Also Read - UP News: 21 Fresh Coronavirus Cases in Gautam Buddh Nagar, Total Tally at 591

While he spoke only about Delhi, a national extension of the lockdown would be wise, according to experts. Also Read - Procure And Stock PPE Kits, Oxygen Masks For 3 Months, Delhi Govt Directs Hospitals Amid Rise in COVID-19 Cases

Why mid-May? Also Read - Coronavirus in Gurugram: Private Hospitals to Face Action if Patients Refused Treatment

Sarin said, Delhi had recorded its first coronavirus case on March 3 and mathematical modelling of the pandemic from China suggests that it takes about 10 weeks for the epidemic curve to decline.

What is flattening the curve?

The curve is said to flatten when the reproduction number is one. For example, 10 people giving the infection to only 10 people.

What is a declining curve?

If the reproduction number is less than one, meaning 10 people (primary cases) passing on the infection to less than 10 persons, say 8 people (secondary cases) and those persons, in turn, passing it on to less than eight people, and so on.

In India, the reproduction number for coronavirus cases is ranged from 1.7 to 2.5, he said.

The Delhi government on Saturday has decided to implement the Ministry of Home Affairs’ (MHA) latest guidelines on the opening of shops. Speaking to a news agency, a Delhi government official informed that standalone shops and shops in non-hotspot residential areas will remain open, but they will have to abide by MHA’s norms.

(With Agency Inputs)