Monsoon likely to remain below normal for India in 2017, predicts Skymet Weather

The Skymet Weather report predicted that monsoon in 2017 is likely to remain at 95 percent with an error margin of ±5 percent of the long period average period.

New Delhi, March 27: Weak monsoon conditions are likely to prevail in India this monsoon season. As per Skymet Weather report, India’s monsoons for the year 2017 is expected to be below normal. It predicted that monsoon in 2017 is likely to remain at 95 percent with an error margin of ±5 percent of the long period average period. India has already been gripped under soaring temperatures his March. Reports mentioned that pre-monsoon rains are likely to continue in Northeast India and will intensify soon.

As per Skymet Weather, a trough is extending from West Assam up to South Chhattisgarh across Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Due to this, rains occurred over districts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Sikkim. In fact, isolated places at Meghalaya also observed light to isolated moderate rainy spells.

The Skymet report said, “Monsoon 2017 is likely to remain below normal at 95% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.” This means that the average rainfall for the four months of monsoon between June and September is 887 mm but a deficit is being predicted.

As per reports by Skymet Weather, Monsoon probabilities for Monsoon seasonal Rainfall are:

• There are 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• There are 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• About 50% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• About 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

It is reported that there is 0 percent chance of excess rainfall while there is a 10 percent chance of above normal seasonal rainfall. Calculating on a monthly scale, Skymet predicts 164 mm rainfall in June, 289 mm rainfall in July, 261 mm rainfall in August and 173 mm rainfall in September. July, August and September face a chance of below normal rainfall up to 30 per cent. The above-mentioned numbers are monsoon probabilities predicted by Skymet Weather.

Meanwguke, the probability of an El Nino formation this year has led to some worries about India’s monsoon season. But a Nomura report says that exact impact on rains and crop production will not be solely dependent on El Nino formation. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM), the likelihood of an El Nino forming in 2017 has risen.  Reports state that about 330 million people are affected by drought in India, the government has said, as the country reels from severe water shortages and desperately poor farmers suffer crop losses.