Zee Final Opinion Poll Predicts Hung Assembly For Punjab, Bhagwant Mann Emerges as Top CM Choice

Final Zee Opinion Poll For Punjab: Zee News has teamed up with DesignBoxed (a political campaign management company, that has a long experience of conducting pre-poll surveys) to know the public opinion before the polls in the state.

Zee Final Opinion Poll For Punjab: With just a few days left for Punjab to go to polls, Zee News on Saturday conducted an Opinion Poll to understand the pulse of the voters in the state. Zee News has teamed up with DesignBoxed (a political campaign management company, that has a long experience of conducting pre-poll surveys) to know the public opinion before the polls in the state. Notably, Zee News has already conducted Opinion Polls on Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and Manipur earlier this month. Today, Zee News is conducting the final opinion poll in Punjab.

Punjab is divided majorly into three regions: Majha, Doaba, and Malwa. Of the regions—Malwa is the biggest with 69 Assembly seats in 12 districts, Majha has 25 Assembly seats in 4 districts, while Doaba has 23 assembly seats in 3 districts.

Earlier elections in Punjab were scheduled for February 14, however, the poll panel later rescheduled the Vidhan Sabha Chunav in the state to February 20 after parties urged it to slot it until after the festival of Guru Ravidas Jayanti, which will be observed on February 16.

Final Zee Opinion Poll For Punjab: Key Updates

Hung Assembly likely in Punjab

Even after getting the massive lead in vote share and number of seats, the AAP may not get the absolute majority to form the government in the state. The AAP has been projected to get 39-42 seats and the Congress is likely to get 38-41 seats. On the other hand, the SAD is predicted to get 25-28 seats in the whole of Punjab state. Looking at the seat-sharing details, the Final Zee Opinion Poll predicted hung assembly for Punjab.

Popular CM choice in Punjab

The Final Zee Opinion Polls has projected AAP’s Bhagwant Mann as the most popular CM choice for the whole of Punjab state. Moreover, Charanjit Singh Channi has been projected as the second CM choice with 34% voting.

Seat share in Punjab: An overview

In terms of seat share, the AAP is projected to get 39-42 seats. Notably, there is an increase in the seat share for the AAP by 3% in comparison to the opinion poll conducted last time on 20 January 2022. As per the final opinion poll, Congress is likely to get 38-41 seats and the SAD is predicted to get 25-28 seats in the whole of Punjab state.

Total vote share in Punjab

According to the Final Zee Opinion Poll, Congress is likely to get 30% vote share, whereas the SAD may get 25% vote share. More significantly, the AAP is predicted to get 34% vote share in the whole of Pubjab state. Notably, the SAD and the AAP have increased their vote share by 1% in comparison to last the opinion poll conducted on January 20, 2022.

Malwa Region:

According to the Final Zee Opinion Poll, the AAP  is projected to get 36% vote share, the Congress is likely to get 28% vote share and the SAD may get 24% vote share. In terms of seats, the Congress is likely to get 19-21 seats, whereas SAD may get 10-12 seats. On the other hand, the AAP and BJP may get 31-33 and 2-4 seats respectively.

Popular CM choice in Malwa region

In this region, Bhagwant Mann has been projected as the most popular CM choice with 40% voting whereas Charanjit Singh Channi emerged as the second most Cm choice with 33% voting.

Doaba Region:

As per the Final Zee Opinion Poll, Congress has been projected to get 32% vote share from Doaba region. And SAD is projected to get 26% vote share, on the other hand, AAP is likely to get 27% vote share. Moreover, from this region, the Congress is likely to get 8-10 seats, whereas SAD is likely to get 6-7 seats and on the other hand, the AAP may get just 4-6 seats.

Popular CM choice in Doaba region

More interestingly, Charanjit Singh has been projected as the most popular CM choice from this region with 37% voting. Bhagwant Mann has emerged as the second CM choice with 36% voting.

Majha Region:

As per the Final Zee Opinion Poll, Congress has been projected to get 33% vote share from Majha region. On the other hand, SAD is projected to get 27% and AAP Is projected to get 26%. On the other hand, the BJP is projected to get only 9% vote share. In terms of seat share, the Congress is projected to get 9-11 seats and SAD is likely to get 8-10 seats. Moreover, the AAP is likely to get 3-5 seats.

Popular CM choice in Majha region

AAP candidate Bhagwant Mann has been projected as the top Chief Ministerial face in this region with 33% vote share. Sukhbir Singh Badal comes second as the CM face with 27% vote share.

All about Punjab Assembly Polls

• The current tenure of the Punjab Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on March 27, 2022. This will be the 16th Assembly of the Punjab legislature.
• The voting will be conducted to elect 117 members of the Punjab Legislative Assembly.

Here’s the complete schedule for Punjab assembly polls:

• Issue of notification: January 21
• Last date of notification: January 28
• Scrutiny of nomination: January 29
• Last date of withdrawal of candidature: January 31
• Date of poll:  February 14
• Counting of votes: March 10

2017 Assembly Polls Scenario

In the 2017 Punjab Assembly polls, Congress won an absolute majority in the state by winning 77 seats and ousted the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party government after 10 years. In a major highlight of the polls, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as the second-largest as it won 20 seats in 117-member Punjab Legislative Assembly.

COVID protocols for Punjab Assembly Election 2022:

• No physical election rallies, roadshows yatras allowed in 5 states till January 15 due to the COVID situation
• Physical rallies during campaign, if allowed later, must follow Covid-19 guidelines
• Political parties and candidates advised to conduct their election campaign in digital or virtual modes as much as possible
• Polling time in all five states to be increased by one hour
• No victory procession to be allowed post-results
• All personnel on election duty will be doubly-vaccinated and also eligible for precautionary third dose to ensure Covid-safe polls 

Methodology And Survey Details

The Zee News-DesignBoxed survey is one of the most accurate opinion polls in the country. Zee News-DesignBoxed reached out to people across 117 seats of poll-bound Punjab between December 5, 2021, to January 16, 2022. The survey was done among randomly selected eligible adults and asked people about the most important issue and the factors that would help reach a decision. The opinion poll also asked people about their preferred choice for the Chief Minister and how caste dynamics swayed the voting decision.

The Zee News-DesignBoxed would also emphasize that despite all precautions taken during the sample survey, a margin of +/-4% is always a possibility if we take into account the respondents’ deviation from the sample. Also, the numbers in the opinion poll are not the actual predictions but a projection based on a sample survey. This survey is the base for the Opinion poll and not actual results.