Punjab Assembly Elections 2017 Opinion Poll: Congress to win 60-65 seats, AAP could bag 41-44: India Today-Axis survey

The incumbent ruling regime of Akali Dal and BJP is predicted to win only 11-15 seats.

Written by: Mohammed Uzair Shaikh

Updated: February 13, 2017, 10:04 AM IST

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https://www.india.com/news/india/punjab-assembly-elections-2017-opinion-poll-congress-to-win-60-65-seats-aap-could-bag-41-44-india-today-axis-survey-1799557/ Copy

Chandigarh, Jan 31: The latest opinion poll by India Today-Axis found Congress to be leading the pre-electoral race in Punjab. Congress is predicted to win 60-65 seats out the total 117 contested. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to emerge at the second position, winning 41-44 seats. On the other hand, the incumbent ruling alliance of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be restricted to merely 11-15 seats, the opinion poll claims.

In terms of vote share, Congress may grab the lion’s share, securing 37 per cent of the votes. Meanwhile, the debutant AAP may be the choice of 34 per cent of electorate, survey claims. SAD-BJP alliance’s vote share is expected to be reduced to 24 per cent.

The survey also quizzed respondents about the most suitable chief ministerial candidate. Capt Amarinder Singh emerged as the most preferred choice, with 34 per cent of survey participants in his favour. Bhagwant Mann emerged as the second most preferred CM candidate, with 22 per cent saying he would be the best chief ministerial face. 21 per cent of participants felt Parkash Singh Badal would be the best chief minister.

Punjab Assembly Elections 2017 Opinion Poll Results:

• The India Today-Axis opinion poll is based upon a sample size of 6,847, spread across all the 117 seats of Punjab.
• The period of survey is stated to be January 13-25.
• Congress is expected to win 37 per cent of the vote share.
• AAP is predicted to secure 34 per cent of the votes.
• SAD-BJP may retain 24 per cent of the vote share, opinion poll claims.
• Congress set to form next government, winning 60-65 seats.
• AAP could bag 41-45 seats, emerging as the prime Opposition.
• The Akali-BJP regime is expected to be restricted to merely 11-15 seats.
• Capt Amarinder Singh emerges as best CM candidate, feel 34 per cent of survey participants.

Through the opinion polls released so far, a mixed electoral scenario has come to the fore. Congress led by Capt Amarinder Singh has been projected to emerge as the single-largest party, with the India Today survey of January predicting a full-majority victory for the party.

AAP, which was enjoying the peak of its popularity nearly a year ago, suffered tremendous setback, as per the successive surveys. Poll after poll showed AAP losing its grounds in Punjab. Infighting, defections and rebellions had seemingly deteriorated the chances of the Kejriwal-led outfit to emerge as an alternative to Akali-BJP and Congress. The ABP News-Lokniti survey (January) predicted the party to emerge at the third spot, winning 12-18 sets.

Another major setback for AAP is the lack of strong chief ministerial face. The party has refrained to announce its CM candidate so far. On the other hand, Akali-BJP has projected incumbent CM Parkash Singh Badal as their chief ministerial face. The 89-year-old Akali patriarch would be leading Punjab for the sixth occasion if his party succeeds in retaining power. Meanwhile, 75-year-old Amarinder Singh is leading the charts so far among the best CM candidate for Punjab. The ABP News-Lokniti survey found 34 per cent in favour of Capt Amarinder.

However, the prospects of AAP lately appear to improve, with the arrival of nearly 10,000 NRIs in the poll-bound state. The members of Punjabi diaspora abroad are largely in favour of AAP. The entry of NRIs has been objected by both Capt Amarinder and Sukhbir Singh Badal. The latter has accused Kejriwal of wooing the Khalistani elements abroad, and receiving their aide in return.

The latest survey released by VDP Associates on Sunday, predicts AAP to form a government with a thin majority. The opinion poll claims that AAP would win 62 out of the 117 seats contested. Congress is projected to emerge as the prime Opposition, bagging 44 seats. The Akali-BJP alliance is expected to retain only 7 seats.

Results of Opinion Polls released so far: