Third Wave of Pandemic Expected to End By Mid-March: IIT-Kanpur Professor

During the peak, Delhi could see 50,000 to 60,000 daily cases, while Mumbai might witness 30,000 infections. Both the cities will see peak by mid-January, predicted Agrawal. 

Updated: January 10, 2022 10:07 AM IST

By India.com News Desk | Edited by Surabhi Shaurya

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New Delhi: ‘The third Wave of COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be more or less over in India by mid-march’, said IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal and the lead of the government-backed Sutra Model which tracks the country’s Covid-19 trajectory. Agrawal also predicted that the third wave could peak by January-end with a total caseload likely to go beyond four to eight lakh cases every day. He, however, added that the picture would be clearer in the next three to four days.

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During the peak, Delhi could see 50,000 to 60,000 daily cases, while Mumbai might witness 30,000 infections. Both the cities will see peak by mid-January, predicted Agrawal.

When asked about the effectiveness of lockdowns, the sutra model lead said,”A strict lockdown always helps more but then it has to be traded off with the downside, which is the complete loss of livelihood for a lot of people.” He made the statement while talking exclusively to The Indian Express.

In the first wave, the very strict lockdown cut down the spread rate by a factor of two. During the second wave, different states adopted different strategies. The states which properly imposed a mild or medium lockdown were also able to cut down the spread. So it helped”, Express quoted IIT Kanpur professor as saying.

When queried about the fourth wave, Agrawal asserted that this can not be predicted mathematically. However, Biologists, who study such pandemics, may have an answer to this. “The fourth wave, whenever it comes, will be because of a new mutant, which finds a way to escape the immunity given by the previous ones”, he told CNN-News 18.

For the unversed, scientists have discovered a new coronavirus variant ‘Deltacron’ in Cyprus that shares its genetic structure with delta and omicron strains of coronavirus. However, the experts that the new strain is not something to be worried about at the moment.

Meanwhile, India has registered 1,79,723 fresh Covid cases and 146 deaths in the last 24 hours, and the Omicron tally has reached 4,033.

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Published Date: January 10, 2022 10:00 AM IST

Updated Date: January 10, 2022 10:07 AM IST