#ZeeNewsOpinionPoll: Congress Just Ahead Of BJP in Uttarakhand, Harish Rawat Most Popular CM Choice | Highlights

Zee News Opinion Poll: The Harish Rawat-led Congress party is all set to wrest power from BJP in Uttarakhand. With 39.7 per cent vote share, Congress is likely to get 33-37 seats of 70-member assembly.

New Delhi: In Zee News Opinion Poll, Uttarakhand incumbent Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami is likely to suffer defeat from his Khatima Assembly seat, while Harish Rawat-led Congress is set to avenge 2017 humiliation by emerging single largest party with 33-37 seats in 70-member Assembly. Moreover, a majority of the respondents—nearly 43%, want Congress leader Harish Rawat to head the next government in the state, while BJP’s Pushkar Singh Dhami and Anil Baluni were in second and third position for the top post with 31% and 11% respectively, showed the Opinion Poll.

Zee News- DesignBoxed Opinion Poll | Key Findings

How is Caste Dynamics Expected to Sway Voting Decision?

Electorally dominant Brahmin, Thakur, and OBC communities are likely to favour the ruling BJP, while SC and Muslims are likely to vote for Congress. 57% Brahmin and 60% Thakurs are expected to vote for BJP, while 84% Muslims and 62% SCs are veering towards the Congress.

‘Abki Baar 50 Ke Paar’

Speaking to Zee News, Congress leader Harish Rawat said party chief Sonia Gandhi will take a final call on the face of the chief minister’s post. This opinion poll has encouraged us to work hard. However, he exuded confidence and said that the party will bag approximately 50 seats in the 70 member assembly.

Most Preferred CM in Uttarakhand

In Uttarakhand, a majority of the respondents nearly 43% want Harish Rawat to head the next government. BJP’s Pushkar Singh Dhami and Anil Baluni were in second and third position with 31% and 11% respectively.

BJP, Congress Fall Short of Majority in Uttarakhand

As per the Zee News Opinion poll, Uttarakhand is expected to witness a nail-biting battle between BJP and Congress. While BJP is expected to bag 31-35 seats of the total 70, Congress is likely to win 33-37, AAP- o-2, others – 1.

Final Vote Share For Uttarakhand

• BJP- 39%
• Congress- 40%
• AAP-12%
• Others- 09%

BJP vs Congress: Who has an edge in Kumaun?

Out of 29 seats in the Kumaun region, the BJP is predicted to win 10 seats, the Congress, is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 19 seats.

Popular CM in Kumaun Region

In the Kumaun region as well, Harish Rawat emerged as the most favourite candidate for the top job with 41 per cent votes. Pushkar Singh Dhami, on the other hand, is the second choice for the post of CM with 26 per cent.

Congress Likely to Take Lead Over BJP in Terms of Vote Share

In the Kumaun region as well, Congress is likely to lead over BJP in terms of vote share. While the grand old party is likely to get 41.6 per cent vote share, BJP, on the other hand, is expected to get 37.8% votes in the Kumaun region. AAP and Others are expected to get 10.4 and 10.2 per cent votes respectively.

BJP likely to get 23 seats in Garhwal region

Out of 41 seats in Garhwal, the BJP is predicted to win 23 seats. The Congress will get 16 seats while the AAP and Others are likely to secure 1 each.

Most preferred CM in Garhwal region

When the respondents in Garhwal were asked whom they want to see as the next Chief Minister of Uttarakhand, 43% of participants voted for Congress leader Harish Rawat while 23% of people voted for BJP leader Pushkar Dhami. BJP’s Anil Baluni was at the third position with 17% and only 8 per cent of participants said they want to see AAP’s Col. Ajay Kothyal as the CM of the state.

Party-wise vote share

• In Uttarakhand, Garhwal region, the BJP is likely to face a marginal cut in its vote share. The ruling party is expected to get 42.6 per cent votes in the polls against its 46.41 per cent vote share in the previous Assembly polls. Congress, on the other hand, is expected to improve its performance with a 38.4 per cent vote share, AAP, on the other hand, is likely to settle with 13.8 per cent votes while Others will get 5.2 per cent votes.
• In 2017, BJP had garnered 46.41% vote share while Congres had got 31.62. Others had received 21.97% vote share.
• Pushkar Singh Dhami or Harish Rawat? Who is the most preferred chief ministerial candidate in Uttarakhand?
• Which party is predicted to get the maximum votes in Garhwal? Zee News opinion poll to reveal shortly. Stay tuned
• Zee News-DesignBoxed divided Uttarakhand into 2 regions — Garhwal and Kumaon to know the accurate results.
• In the tenure of five years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was forced to change the Chief Minister thrice in Uttarakhand. Trivendra Singh Rawat had replaced Tirath Singh Rawat last year, Pushkar Singh Dhami, on the other hand had replaced Tirath Singh Rawat a few months ahead of the polls.

Three-Cornered Battle This Time

• This time, the largely bipolar politics of the state involving the two national parties—BJP and Congress, which have been alternately in power, has got a new twist with Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). For the unversed, AAP is also in the fray, offering itself as an alternative to Congress and the BJP.

Harak Singh Rawat Welcome in Congress, But…, Says Harish Rawat

• Speaking to reporters, Congress leader Harish Rawat said that the grand old party will welcome Harak Singh Rawat (expelled Uttarakhand BJP Minister) if he accepts his mistake. “I don’t want to make any statement on this. Expelled Uttarakhand BJP Minister Harak Singh has not joined the Congress party yet. Party will take a decision after considering several angles”, said Former Uttarakhand CM & Congress leader Harish Rawat.

• What Happened in 2017 and 2012? 

In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party had form the government in Uttarakhand after winning 57 of the 70 seats.  The saffron party had left the Congress reeling in distant second position with 11 seats.

Uttarakhand Assembly Election Results 2012:

• Speaking to a TV channel, poll commentator JS Rawat said that it could be a tall order for the ruling BJP to repeat its tally of 57 seats this year. “Een the Modi wave is not as strong as it was in 2017”, he claimed.

C-Voter Predicts Neck And Neck Between BJP, Congress 

• Earlier this month, C-voter conducted a pre-poll survey and predicted a neck and neck battle between BJP and Congress in Uttarakhand. While the ruling BJP was expected to bag 31-37 seats, Congress may win 30-36 seats.  The debutant AAP was projected to get only 1 of the total 70 seats.
• However, when respondents were asked about a popular face for the chief minister, Congress leader, and former CM Harish Rawat came at first spot with 37 per cent votes while sitting CM and BJP leader Pushkar Singh Dhami was at second spot with 29 per cent people favouring him. Only 9 per cent of people want to see Col Ajay Kothiyal, AAP’s CM face as the next chief minister of Uttarakhand, the C-voter survey showed.

Methodology And Survey Details 

The Zee News-DesignBoxed survey is one of the most accurate opinion polls in the country. Zee News-DesignBoxed reached out to people across 70 seats of poll-bound Uttarakhand between December 10, 2021, to January 15, 2022. The survey was done among randomly selected eligible adults and asked people about the most important issue and the factors that would help reach a decision. The opinion poll also asked people about their preferred choice for the Chief Minister and how caste dynamics swayed the voting decision. The Zee News-DesignBoxed would also emphasize that despite all precautions taken during the sample survey, a margin of +/-4% is always a possibility if we take into account the respondents’ deviation from the sample. Also, the numbers in the opinion poll are not the actual predictions but a projection based on a sample survey. This survey is the base for the Opinion poll and not actual results.