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Joshimath Sinking: IIT Ropar in Punjab claimed that its researchers had in 2021 predicted a large-scale surface displacement in Joshimath in a span of two years. A team of researchers led by Dr Reet Kamal Tiwari, assistant professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Ropar, had carried out the glacial displacement mapping for the 2021 Joshimath flood scenario as early as March 2021.
During the study, Dr Tiwari and his then PhD student Dr Akshar Tripathi, who is now working as assistant professor in the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering at IIT Patna, had predicted a large-scale surface displacement to come up in a span of two years for Joshimath town.
The study was presented in a conference held in Lucknow on April 16, 2021, for which Tripathi was awarded the ‘Best Paper Award’. “However, the study was considered to be a hoax and potentially a fear psychosis by many experts in the area,” news agency PTI reported.
“They had used Persistent Scatterer SAR Interferometry (PSInSAR) technique using Sentinel-1 satellite data for the study. The predictions ranged between 7.5 cm to 10 cm displacement for buildings in Joshimath city which is enough to cause large scale cracks in buildings, a scenario which is now very much evident in the last few days,” the institute said.
Owing to what Joshimath town is facing now and the prediction holding to be true, Dr Tiwari has reiterated his long-term demand that setting up an inter-IIT institute of excellence on Himalayan disasters is the need of the hour.
According to the release, Dr Tiwari also calls it a first of its kind successful inter-institutional collaboration on Himalayan disasters. Dr Akshar Tripathi has seconded the demand for setting up the inter-disciplinary and inter-IIT institution and called the Himalayas to be “our physical and climatic saviours that need to be preserved and protected”.
The release said both Dr Tiwari and Dr Tripathi have also demanded that any such studies that predict disasters should be taken seriously so that proper mitigation measures could be taken well in advance to save life and property.
Relief and rescue efforts were intensified in Joshimath after it was declared a landslide and subsidence-hit zone, with the Centre on Sunday stressing that the immediate priority is the safety of people and asking experts to prepare short and long term plans for conservation and rehabilitation.
Meanwhile, in the first major action towards razing of structures that are posing a threat to residents due to cracks developing, the Chamoli district administration has ordered to demolish two hotels — ‘Mount View’ and ‘Malari Inn’ — which are leaning towards each other, posing a threat to safety of a dozen houses in the vicinity.
Incidentally, an eight-member expert panel led by Ranjit Sinha, secretary of disaster management department, which held a field survey of Joshimath on January 5 and 6, had recommended in its report that “houses with maximum damage should be demolished, areas which have become uninhabitable must be identified and relocation of the people at risk should be done as an immediate measure.”
Cracks appeared in 68 more houses on Monday, taking the number of subsidence-affected homes to 678 while 27 more families were evacuated to safety, according to the Chamoli district administration. So far, 82 families have been shifted to 16 temporary shelters identified by the administration.
Spread in an area of 2.5 square km, Joshimath has around 3,900 residential and 400 commercial buildings, according to the district administration.
(With inputs from agencies)
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