Yarlung Tsangpo dam: China’s mega dam project on Brahmaputra meant for destruction? Poses huge threat to India and…

China has claimed that the gargantuan Yarlung Tsangpo dam is aimed to bolster the country's energy independence as the gigantic hydropower project is projected to produce 60,000 MW of electricity.

Yarlung Tsangpo dam, the world’s largest hydropower dam being built by China on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is known as the Brahmaputra in India, in Tibet, could pose a significant danger to India and other lower-riparian states including Bangladesh once $170 billion (about Rs 14 lakh crore) mega project is completed and becomes operational by 2030.

Why China is building the world’s largest dam on Brahmaputra?

China has claimed that the gargantuan dam is aimed to bolster the country’s energy independence as the gigantic hydropower project is projected to produce 60,000 MW of electricity or 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, which is equal to the annual electricity consumption of entire Britain, and three times more than the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam– currently the largest dam in the world.

With an estimated cost of 1.2 trillion yuan (about $170 billion), the Yarlung Tsangpo dam is the costliest infrastructure project in recorded history, and is being constructed in the Nyingchi region of Tibet, on the lower part of the river where its makes a U-turn at the Great Bend and enters Arunachal Pradesh in India.

The mega dam will have as many as five cascading hydropower generation station, taking complete advantage of the Brahmaputra’s 2,000- metre elevation slope. However, the project presents a major engineering challenge as it requires around half a dozen tunnels to be built the Namcha Barwa hills in order to divert about half of the river’s water.

The Yarlung Tsangpo dam was announced after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited the border region in 2021. Terming it as the ” project of the century”, Keqiang asserted that the dam will solve electricity crisis in Tibet and also supply the surplus power to the northern and eastern parts of China.

How Yarlung Tsangpo dam could impact India and Bangladesh?

China has repeatedly stated that the gigantic dam will not cause any harm to lower riparian states like India and Bangladesh, claiming that the project was approved after decades of peer-reviewed research and studies. However, both New Delhi and Dhaka have expressed concern that the sheer size and magnitude of the dam would enable Beijing to weaponize the Brahmaputra waters in a conflict scenario.

According to experts, northeastern states like Arunachal Pradesh and Assam could face severe water shortages if China decides to use the dam as a reservoir to store water, especially in non-monsoon months. In contrast, China could also cause severe floods in these states if it releases the stored water, essentially turning the dam into a weapon of mass destruction in a conflict scenario.

In a recent statement, Arunachal Chief Minister Pema Khandu called the dam a ticking “water bomb”, that can store or release a whopping 80% of the river’s water. The Brahmaputra’s sediment makes farms in Assam and Bangladesh fertile, and this could be held back by the dam, hurting agriculture and fisheries in these states.

Similarly, about 55% of irrigation in Bangladesh is dependent on the Brahmaputra, and agricultural production in the country could fall by 15% if the flow of the river dips by just 5%. Additionally, the country’s famed mangrove forest, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, could also be at risk due to potential water shortage.

As per various estimates, Brahmaputra meets 65% of Bangladesh’s water needs, and potential water shortages could affect agriculture, fisheries, and increase salt intrusion in the country’s coastal areas.

Furthermore, the Yarlung Tsangpo dam is being built in an earthquake-prone region of the Himalayas, and could cause major devastation in lower riparian states if it ruptures or breaks apart due to a large seismic event.

What is India’s response?

Meanwhile, India plans to build Siang hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh with an expected capacity of 10 gigawatts. The project aims to ensure water security in the region and reduce the impact of China’s mega dam, however, the undertaking faces hurdles like local opposition and environmental challenges.

Additionally, India has demanded transparency and data sharing from China through the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM). Experts believe that India and Bangladesh can jointly put pressure on China, and the three countries reach a tripartite agreement under the UN Water Convention 1997.

Notably, Bangladesh has also recently sought technical information on the impact of the dam.