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‘Third Wave of Corona Expected Peak Between October-November If…’
Agarwal also shared a graph that showed that the second wave is likely to plateau by mid-August and a possible third wave could reach its peak between October and November.
New Delhi: ‘The possible third wave of coronavirus can reach its peak between October and November if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed’, Manindra Agarwal, a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling COVID-19 cases stated. However, it is likely to see half the number of daily cases that were recorded during the second surge. Agarwal, part of the expert panel that came up with the Sutra Model last year to mathematically project the trajectory of COVID-19 in India, asserted that the coronavirus infection can spread faster during the third wave if ‘any new virulent variant’ of SARS-CoV-2 emerges.
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Explaining the panel’s predictions for the third wave, Agrawal said that loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and the possibility of a more virulent variant have been factored in this time, which was not done while modelling the second surge. A detailed report will be published soon.
“We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant),” Agarwal said.
He also explained that the panel has created three scenarios —One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant).
Agarwal also shared a graph that showed that the second wave is likely to plateau by mid-August and a possible third wave could reach its peak between October and November.
Here are plots for the three scenarios. Blue curve is actual data. Orange one is model prediction until May. Dotted curves are three scenarios plotted from June. pic.twitter.com/yDeLnp2rQf
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) July 2, 2021
Furthermore, he claimed that the country could witness cases rise up between 1,50,000 and 2,00,000. The figure, however, is less than half of what was recorded when the second wave had hit its peak.