Covid Surge In China: Experts Predict Three Huge Covid Waves This Winter With Deaths Likely In Millions

According to Chinese Epidemiologist Wu Zunyou, the second wave is around late January to mid-February when trips surge during the Spring Festival holidays, and the third wave will begin in late February until mid-March.

Edited by: Analiza Pathak

Updated: December 21, 2022, 12:09 PM IST

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https://www.india.com/news/world/china-covid-outbreak-experts-predicts-three-covid-wave-this-winter-jan-feb-with-millions-deaths-wu-zunyou-eric-feigl-ding-5814581/ Copy

Experts Predicts Three Huge Covid Waves In China This Winter With Deaths Likely In Millions

China Covid wave: China is forecast to face three waves of COVID-19 spread this winter as 10-30 percent of the population may be infected, an expert predicted. Top Chinese health officials believe that China is experiencing the first of three expected waves of Covid infections this winter. Notably, China witnessed a surge in cases after lifting draconian Covid restrictions earlier this month.

The Chinese government has so far remained silent on the number of deaths. However, the Chinese authorities have warned of successive waves of COVID infections in the coming months, as cases continue to increase after the lifting of restrictions earlier this month.

Spike in Covid cases in January-February

“The second wave is around late January to mid-February when trips surge during the Spring Festival holidays, and the third wave will begin in late February until mid-March when people return to work from their holidays,” Chinese Epidemiologist Wu Zunyou said. The wave is expected to be triggered by the mass travel ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls on January 21 as people travel to their hometowns to celebrate the day.

Covid deaths could be in millions

Another health expert, Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and health economist, said hospitals across China are overwhelmed since Covid restrictions were removed. Feigl-Ding shared a video on his Twitter handle showing a hospital brimming with patients. He further warned that deaths due to Covid could be in millions.

⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 19, 2022

Notably, the work in hospitals in China has been slowing down as they face twin problems – running out of beds due to a large number of patients and health officials getting infected, The Hong Kong Post reported citing western media reports. Meanwhile, pharmacies are running out of stock due to an increase in demand and have a scant possibility of replenishment.

People are reporting countless cases of COVID-19 around them, despite the official count being around 2,000 a day, The Hong Kong Post reported citing a state media report. Last week, the national health commission admitted that it was “impossible” to keep track of asymptomatic infections, and it would no longer be counting them.

Experts have predicted a million deaths in the coming months. According to experts, China is poorly prepared for a drastic exit as the country is facing a shortage of strengthening the elderly vaccination rate, intensive care capacity in hospitals, and stockpiling antiviral medications.

According to the projections by three professors at the University of Hong Kong, a nationwide reopening could lead to up to 684 deaths per million people under the current conditions. As China has a population of 1.4 million people, it would amount to 964,400 deaths.

(With inputs from agencies)