Donald Trump’s tariff war fails to deter Narendra Modi as India continues buying Russian crude oil, US now plans to…

Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics company, has said that despite the US president's threats, India's imports of Russian crude oil are expected to remain strong in January as well.

New Delhi: US President Donald Trump is tightening pressure on India by imposing heavy tariffs over its purchase of Russian oil. He has imposed a 50 percent tariff on India, with 25 percent specifically for importing Russian crude. Recent reports suggest that Donald Trump is considering slapping a 500 percent tariff on India. However, experts believe India will continue buying Russian oil despite the escalating pressure.

Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics company, has said that despite the US president’s threats, India’s imports of Russian crude oil are expected to remain strong in January as well. As per Kpler, India could import around 1.3 million barrels of crude oil per day from Russia in January. It is important to note that the government-owned Indian Oil Corporation and Rosneft-linked Nayara Energy have increased their purchases of Russian crude oil this month. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries has not purchased any oil from Russia this time.

Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) Sumit Ritolia has reportedly said that if the proposed 500 percent US tariff on purchases of Russian oil is actually implemented, it would completely change the way such purchases are made.

He further added that this would not cause an overnight shortage of oil, but it would change the way risks are perceived.

Here are some of the key details:

• In December 2025, India’s imports of Russian crude oil declined sharply.
• In November, imports stood at 1.84 mbd, which fell to around 1.2 mbd in December.
• This decline came after the United States imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil.
• According to Kpler, this drop marks the lowest level of imports since the end of 2022
• The drop represents a temporary purchasing adjustment rather than a major structural change.
• Ritolia said that Russian oil is still economically cheaper and suitable for Indian refineries.
• Imports are expected to rise again from January, as trade will be conducted through non-designated intermediaries.
• Until large-scale secondary sanctions are imposed, Russian crude oil will continue to remain a significant part of India’s oil supply.

Supply through intermediaries

India receives Russian crude oil through intermediaries, traders, and other channels. Due to US sanctions, direct purchases from companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil have declined, but other firms like Tatneft, Redwood Global Supply, Rusexport, Morexport, and Algaf Marine are filling this gap.