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Israel is facing a potential shortage of interceptor missiles as it strengthens its air defense systems to guard against possible attacks from Iran and its allied groups, according to industry experts, former military personnel, and analysts.
The US is moving quickly to help strengthen Israel’s defense systems, announcing on Sunday that it will send a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system. This comes in anticipation of a possible Israeli strike on Iran, which could lead to more tension in the region.
“The shortage of ammunition in Israel is a serious concern,” said Dana Stroul, a former top US defense official responsible for the Middle East, as reported by the Financial Times.
“If Iran retaliates against an Israeli attack with a large-scale airstrike, and Hezbollah gets involved, Israel’s air defenses will be pushed to their limits,” Dana Stroul explained. She also pointed out that US weapon supplies are not endless, saying, “The US can’t keep supporting both Ukraine and Israel at the same level. We are approaching a critical point.”
Boaz Levy, the CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company that produces the Arrow interceptors used to destroy ballistic missiles, told the Financial Times that they are operating around the clock with triple shifts to keep up with production demands.
Some production lines are running 24 hours a day, seven days a week to meet commitments, and producing interceptor missiles takes longer than just a few days. While Israel keeps the size of its stockpiles confidential, Boaz Levy, CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, acknowledged, “It’s no secret that we need to replenish our supplies.”
Israel’s three-tiered air defense system has successfully intercepted most of the drones and missiles launched by Iran and its allies from different parts of the region.
Israel’s Iron Dome has intercepted short-range rockets and drones launched by Hamas from Gaza, while David’s Sling has taken down larger rockets fired from Lebanon. The Arrow system has stopped ballistic missiles from Iran. Additionally, missiles, rockets, and drones have been launched at Israel by Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq.
In April, the Israeli military announced that, with support from the United States and other allies, it successfully intercepted nearly 99% of incoming attacks. These attacks included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, reportedly launched by Iran. This high interception rate highlights the effectiveness of Israel’s air defense systems, which work in coordination with advanced technology and international partnerships to prevent large-scale damage from such threats.
However, Israel faced more challenges during a second wave of attacks on October 1, when over 180 ballistic missiles were launched by Iran. This time, its defenses were less effective in stopping the incoming missiles, indicating the difficulty of handling such large-scale assaults. According to open-source intelligence analysts, nearly 36 missiles struck Israel’s Nevatim air base. Additionally, one missile detonated just 700 meters from the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency.
The US-provided THAAD system, built to intercept ballistic missiles, will operate alongside Israel’s Arrow defense system.The addition of the THAAD system strengthens Israel’s air defenses as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government prepares a counterattack in response to Iran’s missile strikes in October. Iran claimed the attack was in retaliation for the deaths of leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has demonstrated that it can still hit targets at least 60 kilometers inside Israel, despite weeks of Israeli attacks targeting its leaders and weapons stockpiles.
On Sunday, a Hezbollah attack drone killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base located in the center of the country.
According to reports from the Financial Times, Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy for the Israel Defense Forces, stated that Hezbollah has not yet used its full strength. So far, the group has been firing only about 10% of its estimated pre-war capacity, launching a few hundred rockets per day instead of up to 2,000. This indicates that Hezbollah still holds considerable firepower it hasn’t deployed yet.
According to Orion, part of the reason for the reduced attacks is Hezbollah’s choice not to use its full strength yet, while the other reason is the damage caused by the Israeli military (IDF) to its capabilities. However, he noted that Hezbollah still has enough resources to carry out a powerful offensive. He added that areas like Haifa and northern Israel continue to face frequent rocket and drone attacks almost every day.
Analysts explained that Israel’s defense planners and its AI-powered air defense systems are having to prioritize certain areas for protection over others.
Official Israeli reports show that more than 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel from Gaza and Lebanon over the past year. This reflects the scale of the attacks the country has been dealing with.
Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence, explained that during the October 1 attack, it seemed the IDF held back some Arrow interceptors as a precaution, in case Iran launched another round of missiles targeting Tel Aviv.Israel may soon face a shortage of interceptors, forcing it to carefully decide how and where to use them.
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