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New Delhi/Washington, Nov 8: Indians have been watching the electoral developments around the US Presidential Elections 2016 in the United States of America closely. Who, between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, would be better for India? While there is a buzz in New Delhi’s political circles that Republican presidents are generally better for India than Democrats, many still believe Hillary Clinton is visibly a better choice for Indians.
The US witnessed perhaps the most fierce and aggressive electoral contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump made scathing attack on each other during the campaign. Their speeches were full of accusations, barbs and promises. But what does this US election 2016 mean for India? Considering India’s rising potential and increasing dominance in the geopolitics, US government will seek to increase engagements with it.
While choosing one between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, one must think about the impact of the next US President and his or her policies on trade, economy, immigration, terrorism and society. Have a look at the following facts and analysis before picking one between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump:
Foreign policy:
The Foreign policy of the next US President will decide the fate of US’ relationship with other countries including India. No doubt Hillary Clinton outshines Donald Trump in this crucial area. Hillary Clinton has a vast experience of handling international issues. On the other hand, we have someone who talks more about problems than solutions. However Donald Trump will more of what India would like to hear from a US President on Pakistan, but we should not give excessive importance to Pakistan and consider Hillary in a larger context. Donald Trump’s anti-China stand might impress some, but overall his position on foreign affairs is doubtful. Hillary Clinton might not have anything new to give India in terms of ties, but she understand the situation and the country better than Donald Trump, who thinks India is Hindus.
As one commentator pointed out, “U.S. relations with India will continue the tenor of strong engagement in the absence of massive geopolitical events, irrespective of which way the elections swing,”, United States under Hillary or Trump cannot afford estranged relationship with India, considering the the expansion of the Chinese influence in the South China Sea.
Trade and Investment:
Many believe Indo-American trade engagements will increase if Donald Trump goes to White House because he is a businessman. But it is not the case. Donald Trump has spoken against US-based companies for opening their branches in other countries like India. Trump recently accused US tech giant IBM of laying off 500 workers in Minneapolis and shifting their jobs to India and other countries. He also warned of levying a 35 per cent tax on companies doing so if he is elected. If he continues to hold this position, (however he rarely does so), investment from US will significantly go down. Having fear of tax, companies might shut their operations in India, resulting more unemployment. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make In India’ initiative aims to bring more companies and investment to India, Donald Trump’s policy clearly goes against it.
Again, Hillary Clinton won’t bring more investment to India, but she won’t touch the existing trade ties and investments. Hillary knows India’s trade aspirations in the context of wider geopolitics and she could be more supportive to New Delhi. Hillary is the wife of Bill Clinton, who has been a long time friend of India and built the current Indo-US partnership which grew under George W Bush later. Hillary maintained the good relationship her husband built with India during her tenure as Secretary of State. So Indians can back Hillary Clinton in terms of trade and investments.
Immigration:
Donald Trump has been an anti-immigration. However he hasn’t said anything against Indian-Americans so far. Donald Trump blames immigrants of Muslim countries and Mexico for the crimes committed on the streets of America. Don’t be fooled into thinking that he is not against Indian-Americans. Trump has promised to bring back job for Americans. It simply means he will reduce or end H1B visas, of which Indians are among the biggest beneficiaries, so that more Americans can be employed rather than immigrants. In short, Donald trump is just playing with their fears of Americans of losing jobs to immigrants.
One the other hand, Hillary Clinton favors allowing pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She also supported Obama’s Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA) program, which would allow up to five million undocumented immigrants to gain deferral of deportation and authorization to legally work in the United States. So Clinton is expected to continue the legacy of Obama administration that more immigration-friendly.
Terrorism:
Donald Trump’s anti-Muslim image might give another golden opportunity to Muslim extremist to radicalise youth to wage war against West and US. Donald Trump’s election as President will result into more recruitment by extremists in Middle-East. Since Donald Trump, who is ‘a big fan of Israel’, vowed to dismantle the international nuclear agreement with Iran, which will lead to bigger conflict. Trump wants to use more weapons and force against the terror activities in the Middle-East countries, however his hardline stand will surely worsen the situation. With Donald Trump in office, terrorism is bound to increase in Middle-East, which will affect India sooner or later. Barack Obama has rightly said that Donald Trump is surely not the right person to have nuclear codes as he has potential to launch the third world war.
However Hillary Clinton is not much different from Donald Trump when it comes to using military against land to which terrorists believe to be their homeland, but she has a moderate tone when it comes to combating terrorism. Donald Trump’s anti-Muslim image make him more dangerous than Hillary Clinton. India will have only one problem with Hillary that she would maintain soft stand of US on Pakistan.
Socialism:
India a country that hosts several religions, cultures, languages and values cannot stand with someone who has scored political points by demonizing religious minorities (Muslims) and ethnic minorities (Mexican-Americans). Indians won’t like someone who is a known preacher of hate. Indian society believes in standing together, rather than ‘building walls’. In this scenario, Hillary Clinton is the more favourable than Donald Trump for Indians.
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