Will petrol prices rise in India amid escalating tensions in West Asia? Crude oil surges sharply across globe, what is the Modi government's plan?
India, which imports about 87 percent of its oil and nearly 60 percent of its natural gas requirements, is making every possible effort to deal with this global turbulence.
Will petrol prices rise in India amid escalating tensions in West Asia?
New Delhi: The tensions in West Asia are escalating and showing no signs of easing. Amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, it remains uncertain when the movement of oil and gas tankers through the nearly shut Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. It is important to note that the current situation has pushed the crude oil prices in international markets above USD 110 per barrel for the fifth time in the past five weeks.
India, which imports about 87 percent of its oil and nearly 60 percent of its natural gas requirements, is making every possible effort to deal with this global turbulence. The Modi government has held a slew of meetings on this issue. An interministerial group has also been formed under the chairmanship of Rajnath Singh. High-level meetings are also being held, chaired by the Cabinet Secretary and a special committee comprising the Ministries of Petroleum, External Affairs, and Shipping.
Will crude oil prices rise to USD 150?
Owing to the current situation, several major international agencies and Wall Street giants have already warned that prices could rise to USD 140 150 per barrel. As per the April data from the Petroleum Ministry, India purchased crude oil at an average price of USD 125.88 per barrel.
It is important to note that this is nearly double compared to India's average purchase price of USD 69.01 in February 2026. In March 2026, India bought crude at USD 113.49 per barrel. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel, while a report by ING also suggests prices could touch USD 140.
Here are some of the key details:
- Analysts at Bloomberg estimate that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for two months, prices could reach around $140
- If it continues for three months, they could climb to USD 165 per barrel.
- On Monday, Brent crude was trading between $108.50 and $110.67 per barrel in various international markets.
- Prices of natural gas and LNG have also surged sharply.
- Compared to February 28, Brent crude has risen by nearly 33%.
- If crude prices reach the USD 130 140 per barrel range, it will have a serious impact on India's state-run oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL).
Will petrol and diesel prices rise?
According to the reports, the losses of these big companies are likely to increase significantly. The Petroleum Ministry has already acknowledged under-recoveries of Rs 26 per litre on petrol and Rs 103 per litre on diesel. At such high crude prices, these under-recoveries will widen further, potentially leading to additional losses worth billions of rupees for these companies.
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