What Went Wrong in Syria – Decoding the Saga Written in Blood

Iran, distracted by its conflict with Israel, could not provide the same level of support, and Hezbollah had to withdraw its forces to counter Israeli actions in Lebanon.

The over 53-year dynastic rule of the Assad family in Syria is coming to an end after rebel forces launched a blitzkrieg advance into Damascus, the capital, and turned the tables in just two weeks. Reports suggest that President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country & taken refuge in Russia, and majority of his forces have ran away without facing any resistance from the rebels. The sitting prime minister has offered a smooth transfer of power to the rebels and there are so many contenders for the top position of the country. While the future remains uncertain, it is difficult to predict what lies ahead for Syria.

For nearly 15 years, global giants like the United States, Russia, Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and Turkey have been at loggerheads, actively supporting various factions in Syria. The war has led to the deaths of nearly 650,000 people and displaced over 12 million – more than half of the country’s total population. This toll far surpasses any other conflict in the history of the Middle East and stands as the highest in the world in the 21st century.

Unfortunately, due to the complex nature of the conflict, it has not received as much media attention as it should have. As a result, most people worldwide are unaware of what went wrong in Syria. Let’s break down the history, events, and ongoing crisis to understand the situation in simple terms.

History – What Went Wrong

Syria had long been under the control of the Ba’ath Party, which ruled the country since 1971. Bashar al-Assad took power in July 2000, following the death of his father, General Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled for nearly three decades. The dynastic rule of the Assads, alongside their policies, created widespread unrest. Upon taking power, Bashar al-Assad began cracking down on intellectuals, and his government was soon accused of large-scale human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, and imprisoning prominent figures. He was also accused of orchestrating the assassination of political rivals.

Despite being part of the Shia minority Alawite sect, the Assads managed to maintain control over a predominantly Sunni-majority state. The Alawites held nearly all key positions of power in Syria, creating deep resentment within the broader population. By the time of the civil war, it was evident that only Alawites supported Assad, while the majority of the population opposed him. The Syrian economy, already weakened by a five-year drought, also faced severe challenges. These conditions created a fertile ground for rebellion.

Uprising – How the Fire Started

2011 was a pivotal year for the Middle East, with the Arab Spring sweeping across the region. Countries such as Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya saw uprisings that either ousted governments or forced them to make concessions. Syria was no different. Protests broke out across the country as people grew increasingly frustrated with the Assad family’s autocratic rule. Initially, Assad attempted to placate the protesters, but as their demands grew louder, he responded with brutal crackdowns, killing many demonstrators. This escalation led to the formation of an armed rebellion.

By July 2011, defectors from the Syrian Army formed a well-organized opposition group, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and established a parallel government under the banner of the “Syrian National Council,” based in Istanbul, Turkey. In subsequent years, few things happened simultaneously. First was the grouping, re-grouping and reorganisation of both government militia and rebel fighters. Second was the territorial control where sometimes rebels were controlling sizeable portion of the country and sometimes government. Third and most important was the involvement of non-state actors in the war. Several terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, ISIS and others were flexing their muscles in Syria. The war continued and Bashar al Assad maintained his control over the capital till he was overthrown two days back.

The Rebels – Made Syria a bloody battleground

The rebel forces in Dec 2024 were consisting of several major and minor groups. Major groups were Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Free Syrian Army (FSA), Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Front (SDF) & Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA) while there were several minor groups like Al Nusra front etc. HTS being the most important of all was the group which captured cities after cities in a blitzkrieg advance. HTS was an offshoot of the dreaded terrorist group Al-Qaeda and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani was one of the most dreaded Al-Qaeda terrorists in Iraq who later became founder and Chief of Al-Nusra front, branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria. He was arrested by US forces in 2006 & remained in various prisons for over 5 years. It is interesting that today the same Al-Julani is the top most contender for the presidential position in Syria with the fact that he still carries a reward of $10Mn on him by USA.

The Allies – Who Turned the tables

Several key powers played a significant role in the Syrian conflict, turning it into a proxy war. These included the United States, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, the Gulf states, and Turkey. Let’s break down the roles of major allies.

Iran and Hezbollah

Iran, along with Hezbollah, both Shia entities, supported Assad’s government due to their shared sectarian ties. Iran saw Syria as a critical ally in strengthening the position of Shia Islam in the region. Iran provided financial, military, and logistical support to the Assad regime, including the deployment of Iranian fighters and military advisers. Hezbollah, likewise, sent thousands of fighters to support Assad’s forces. By 2023, Iran and Hezbollah had established over 55 military bases in Syria, controlling nearly 70% of all foreign military installations in the country.

Turkey and the Gulf States

Turkey, Syria’s immediate neighbour, played a vital role from the start of the rebellion. It not only trained and armed Free Syrian Army fighters but also provided financial support. Turkey’s interest in the conflict was partly driven by the Sunni-Shia divide and geopolitical considerations, including rivalry over energy pipelines. Turkey, along with the Gulf Cooperation Council (primarily Saudi Arabia and Qatar), supported numerous rebel factions, including HTS, Al-Nusra Front, and Ahrar al-Sham.

In addition to state-backed groups, thousands of independent Sunni jihadists from various countries, including Chechens, Uighurs, Uzbeks, Afghans, and Pakistanis, flocked to Syria to fight in the name of Sunni ideology. These fighters played a significant role in escalating the violence.

America and Russia – The Rival Elephants

The rivalry between the United States and Russia has been a crucial factor in prolonging the conflict. Tensions between the two superpowers flared up in 2010, even before the protests began, when the U.S. proposed building a natural gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria to Turkey and on to Europe. This plan threatened Russia’s economic interests, as Europe was a key consumer of Russian gas. Assad, a loyal ally of Russia, opposed the project, and instead, Syria became part of a Russian-Iranian pipeline alliance. By 2011, both the U.S. and Russia began providing military support to opposing factions.
When the Islamic State (ISIS) emerged as a global threat in 2014-2015, both the U.S. and Russia officially entered Syria to combat the jihadist group. Russia established military bases in Syria, notably in Hmeimim and Tartus, while the U.S. too maintained several bases in rebel-controlled areas. Even after ISIS was largely defeated by 2016, the two powers continued their involvement, turning Syria into a battleground for their competing interests.

December 2024 – Time of the Blitzkrieg

By 2024, the tides had turned dramatically. Bashar al-Assad’s allies could no longer support him as they had before. Russia, engaged in the war in Ukraine, became increasingly disengaged from Syria. Iran, distracted by its conflict with Israel, could not provide the same level of support, and Hezbollah had to withdraw its forces to counter Israeli actions in Lebanon. This created a golden opportunity for the rebels, who had been consolidating their strength over the years.

In December 2024, after Hezbollah announced a ceasefire with Israel, the powerful rebel faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive from their stronghold in Idlib. They swiftly captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and eventually Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee the country in fear for his life.

What Now?

With Assad’s regime collapsing like a house of cards, Syria’s future remains uncertain. His forces have ran away from the battleground without any fight leaving their weapons, ammunition and equipment’s and their whereabouts are unknown. The rebels, although captured the capital and are ready to form government, will face immense challenges in establishing control over the entire nation, potentially leading to a fragmented and unstable Syria. Opposition too is divided into 58 groups and each one of them wants their share of success. At the same time, the prosecution of Assad loyalists especially the Alawites may trigger further violence, and the waters of the Euphrates may once again run red with blood.

(Amit Bansal is a Defence Strategist with keen interests in International Relations and Internal Security. He is also an author, blogger, and poet.)

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