New Delhi: The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not new. They are as old as the formation of these two countries post-dissolution of the erstwhile Soviet Republic. Initially, the bone of contention was the transfer of strategic weapons, and then it was ownership of the Black Sea Fleet. However, the situation remained under control until the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict where Ukraine was accused of supplying Georgia with weapons and warlike stores. Meanwhile, the United States took advantage of this event and supported Ukraine’s bid to join NATO as per the NATO Membership action plan which further infuriated Kremlin.
After several ups and downs under the Ukrainian leadership of Yulia Tymoshenko and the then Victor Yushchenko, there have been many peaks and valleys in the Russo-Ukrainian relations however situation improved until the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution and annexation of Crimea by Russia. These events distanced the countries far away and Ukraine actively pursued its efforts to join NATO. This further resulted in Russian support to separatists in Donbas and Ukrainian reluctance to ensure Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe.
It is pertinent to understand the strategic location of Ukraine while we discuss the ongoing crisis. Ukraine is a Russian gateway to Europe and similarly, it is the NATO gateway to Russia too. If Russia controls it, Moscow will have influence over Europe but if Ukraine joins NATO, US forces will be knocking at the doors of the Kremlin. Further, there is an issue of control over the Black Sea as Russia has limited numbers of warm water ports to operate its commercial and military activities. In a nutshell, both Russia and the US want their control over Ukraine and the current situation is not less than “Another Cold War” which may turn ugly if not controlled.
The trigger to the present crisis was the Ukrainian deployment of over half of its Army to suppress Pro-Russian fighters in the Donbas region which compelled Russian president Vladimir Putin to first thin out its Embassy in Ukraine and then deploy its forces around Ukraine in a bid to pressurize Kyiv. The situation is tense now and as I write these lines, more and more Russian troops are moving towards Ukrainian borders with a constant threat of a large military escalation in the Caucasus. Let us understand how Russia tightened its noose around Ukraine.
On January 17, 2022, Russia sent a large number of forces including tanks, artillery, support arms, anti-tank battalions, and large number of its Spetsnaz (Special Forces) to Belarus on the pretext of carrying out “Exercise Allied Resolve”, however, it is widely assumed that these forces are deployed at critical points on Belarus-Ukraine border with a clear mandate to launch an assault on Ukraine whenever ordered. As per an estimate, over 10-12 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) each comprising of over 1200-1500 soldiers are deployed in Belarus while another 12-14 BTGs are waiting at the Belarus-Russian border in Yelnya and Bryansk as reinforcement. Belarus President also declared its full support to Russian forces in case any hostility take place with Ukraine. The Russian Forces are also deployed on Belarus-Poland Border and Belarus-Lithuania border since these two are NATO countries. Understanding the gravity of the situation and a possible threat from NATO forces, Russia has also sent three S-400 systems and 12 PANTSIR-S Air Defence systems to Belarus.
Russia has also deployed another 60-65 BTGs at various locations bordering Ukraine including 3-5 BTGs in Kursk, 3-5 BTGs in Pogonovo, 12-15 BTGs spread in the areas of Voronezh and Belgorod. 12-15 BTGs in Rostov, around 15 BTGs as reinforcement from Russian Southern Military District, 12-15 BTGs in Crimea which is now under the control of Russia, and 3-5 BTGs in Moldova to target Ukrainian Port town of Odesa. In addition to this, there is an entire Russian Black Sea Fleet comprising of over 90 Combat Ships. It is estimated that approximately over 2 Lakh Russian soldiers are deployed around Ukraine which is a matter of worry not only for Ukraine but to NATO also who have not yet moved a single soldier in support of Kyiv.
A Graphic representation of Russian deployment
While Ukraine claims of having over 2.5 Lakh strong army to counter Russian aggression, its position is critical. Although NATO countries have supplied a huge number of weapons, ammunition, and other warlike stores to Kyiv, it is facing stiff resistance within the country where its entire eastern region including Donbas & Kharkiv are supporting Russians. There are protests on the streets of Kyiv against forced recruitment of its citizen in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Not only this, but Ukraine is also totally dependent upon Russia for Oil and Gas in absence of which there will be a severe crisis. Ukraine has an option of stopping Russian Gas supplied to Europe, but it will further deteriorate the situation as the net affected party will be the European Union.
At the same time, the United States has already made its stance clear that it will not react in case of a minor or localised conflict but in case of a major one, it will think and take a collective decision involving other NATO countries. This can be considered a setback for Ukraine which is not yet a member of NATO. Further, seeing the criticality of Russian Gas supplies to Europe, NATO itself is divided over the issue and most European members of NATO are not favoring any military action against Kremlin even if it launches an attack on Ukraine. Putting NATO forces against Russia in Ukraine will further compel Moscow to react which may not be a favourable situation for some of the European members of NATO. It will further lead to another Cold War-like situation which even the US would like to avoid keeping in view of the present economic situation.
This leaves only one option to NATO countries and that will be putting more sanctions on Russia. This is a matter of debate as Russia is already under tight sanctions from the US and European Union after the 2014 Crimean Crisis and there is not much scope for further sanctions. However, how things will unturn, is a matter of time but one thing is sure. The net loser in this entire game will be Ukraine only. Kyiv lost Crimea in 2014 and this time, there are very high chances that it may lose Kharkiv and Donbas to Russia without any major military activity. It may be optimistic about NATO support, but they have their own priorities and this time their active support to Ukraine looks difficult.
Amit Bansal is a Defence Strategist with keen interests in International Relations and Internal Security. He is also an author, blogger, and poet.
(DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of India.com. The writer is solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of this article.)
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