Being an agricultural economy, Monsoon holds key to much of the rural and domestic production in India. The spell of rainfall lasting for nearly four months (June-September), is caused due to the movement of south-west monsoon winds towards the Indian mainland. In 2017, Monsoon was expected to arrive earlier than usual, due to early development of rainfall system in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
As per the reports emerging till late of May, Monsoon was expected to hit the western Indian shores by the end of May. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) says the rainfall would begin in Kerala by May 31. The south-west monsoon winds are expected to reach Goa within the next 5-6 days. In the subsequent week, Monsoon weather system is expected to intensify in Maharashtra as well.
According to the IMD, the monsoon this year is expected to remain normal. In 2016, the monsoon was above normal, leading to a bumper rainfall in most parts of the nation. However, southern India witnessed dry spells in the previous Monsoon, which led to drought in North Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
In parts of northern and eastern Maharashtra, efforts have been taken by the state government to create water storage facilities in several villages. The Jalyukt Shivar programme was one of the projects being personally monitored by Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis.
Movement of Monsoon by May-end
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat.5 N/Long.76 E, Lat.8 N/Long.83 E, Lat.10 N/Long.86 E, Lat.14 N/Long.92 E and Lat.16 N/Long.95 E. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives area, some more parts of Comorin area, southwest Bay of Bengal, east central Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of west central and northeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.
With the strengthening of westerlies and likely northward shift of the shear zone, conditions are also becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon and its setting in over Kerala and parts of northeastern states around 30th - 31st May 2017. The well marked low pressure area over east central and adjoining areas of southeast and west central Bay of Bengal concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 28th May 2017 over central parts of Bay of Bengal centered near Lat.14.0 N/Long.88.5 E, about 950 kms south of Kolkata and 980 kms south-southwest of Chittagong (Bangladesh).
It moved east-north-eastwards and now lies over east central Bay of Bengal, centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 28th May 2017, near Lat.14.5 N/Long.89.5 E, about 900 kms nearly south-southeast of Kolkata and 890 kms south-southwest of Chittagong. The system is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Long.91.0 E and Long.92.0 E around 30th May 2017 noon. It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 24 hours.
The trough at mean sea level now runs from west Rajasthan to the centre of the Depression across north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha and extends upto 0.9 km a. s. l. The cyclonic circulation over Bihar and adjoining areas of West Bengal now lies over eastern parts of Bihar and adjoining areas of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and extends between 1.5 & 3.1 kms a. s. l. The trough in westerlies roughly along Long.85 E to the north of Lat.22 N persists at 5.8 kms a.s.l.
The cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 kms a. s. l. The trough from south Madhya Maharashtra to south interior Karnataka has become less marked. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed at a few places in west Rajasthan. Heat wave conditions prevailed at a few places in Haryana, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.
Day temperatures were appreciably above normal in some parts of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Konkan and Goa, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and of coastal Karnataka and in remaining parts of Rajasthan and of Madhya Pradesh and were above normal in some parts of Odisha, west Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch, Marathwada, north interior Karnataka and of Kerala and in remaining parts of Vidarbha.
They were markedly below normal in some parts of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and of coastal Andhra Pradesh and in remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, appreciably to markedly below normal in some parts of west Uttar Pradesh, appreciably below normal in some parts of Jharkhand and of Uttarakhand and in remaining parts of Odisha, east Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and of south interior Karnataka and were below normal in some parts of Arunachal Pradesh and in remaining parts of Gangetic West Bengal and of coastal Andhra Pradesh.
They were normal over the rest of the country. The highest maximum temperature recorded over the plains was 48.3 C at Ganganagar (west Rajasthan).