Zee Opinion Poll For UP: BJP Projected to Return to Power With 241-263 Seats, Yogi Emerges as Most Popular CM Face

Final Zee Opinion Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Zee News has teamed up with DesignBoxed to conduct the country’s biggest Opinion Poll to understand the pulse of the voters in poll-bound state of Uttar Pradesh.

Final Zee Opinion Poll For Uttar Pradesh: As just a few days left for Uttar Pradesh to go to polls, Zee News on Friday teamed up with DesignBoxed to conduct the country’s biggest Opinion Poll to understand the pulse of the voters in poll-bound states. In this Final Opinion Poll, Zee News’ survey has divided Uttar Pradesh into six regions — Purvanchal, Awadh, Bundelkhand, Western UP, Central UP and Rohilkhand. The Rohilkhand (previously Rampur State) is a region in the northwestern part of Uttar Pradesh, that is centered on the Rampur, Bareilly and Moradabad divisions. Rohilikhand region has 4 districts and 25 seats. The Budaun district in particular has 6 seats namely Budaun, Bisauli, Bilsi, Dataganj Shekhupur and and Sahaswan.

As pet the Zee News Opinion Poll conducted on Friday, the BJP has been projected to cross the majority mark by winning 241-263 seats. In the earlier poll conducted on 19 January 2022, the BJP was projected to get 245-267 seats. Moreover, Yogi Adityanath has been projected as the most popular CM choice across the state.

Zee Final Opinion Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Key Updates

Overall Vote Share in Uttar Pradesh:

The BJP is projected to get 41% vote share as compared to the earlier poll conducted on 19 January 2022. The SP has been projected to get 34% vote share across the state. The BSP may get 12% vote share and Congress just 6%, the poll predicted.

Overall Seat Share in Uttar Pradesh:

As per the opinion poll, the BJP has been projected to cross the majority mark by winning 241-263 seats. In the earlier poll conducted on 19 January 2022, the BJP was projected to get 245-267 seats. On the other side, the SP has been projected to win 130-151 seats, BSP 4-9 seats and the Congress is likely to get only 3-7 seats in whole of Uttar Pradesh.

Popular CM Choice in Uttar Pradesh:

According to the opinion poll, Yogi Adityanath has emerged as the most favourite chief minister with 47% votes. Akhilesh Yadav was voted with 34% for the CM choice. Yogi Adityanath had also emerged as the most popular CM choice in the earlier opinion poll conducted on 19 January 2022.

Region-wise poll prediction

Purvanchal Region:

As per the Zee Opinion Poll 2022, the BJP is projected to get 39% vote share in Purvanchal region. The SP on the other hand has been projected to get 36% vote share. The BSP and the Congress are likely to get only 13% and 6% vote share respectively. Moreover, in Purvanchal, the BJP is likely to get 53-59 seats and SP may get 39-45 seats. In this region, Yogi Adityanath has been projected as the most favourite CM choice with 48% vote. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was projected as the CM face with 35% votes.

Central UP Region:

In this region, the BJP has been projected to get 46% vote share, just ahead of SP at 32%. In terms of seat share, the BJP is likely to get 47-49 seats and the SP may get 16-20 seats. In the meantime, Yogi Adityanath has been projected as the most popular CM face at 47%.

Awadh Region:

The opinion for this region projected the BJP to get 41% vote share and the SP to get 32%. The BSP has been projected to get 12%. In terms of seat share, the BJP has been projected to get 76-82 seats and the SP just 34-38 seats.

Rohilkhand Region:

In Rohilkhand region, the BJP is projected to get 15-17 seats and SP may get just 8-10 seats. In comparison to the earlier poll on January 19, 2022, the BJP is getting less 4 seats. Earlier, the BJP was projected to get 19-21 seats.

Bundelkhand Region:

The Zee Opinion Poll projected the BJP to get 49% vote share in Bundelkhand. On the other hand, the SP is likely to get just 21%. The opinion poll also projected the BJP to get 17-19 seats in Bundelkhand and the SP may get just 0-1 seat. However, there was 10% down in vote share for the BJP in comparison to the earlier poll on January 19.

Western UP Region: 

As per the Zee Opinion Poll, Yogi Adityanath has been projected as the most favourite CM choice from Western UP. The poll projected the SP to get 37% vote share in Western UP. The party is ahead of BJP in Western UP in terms of vote share. On the other hand, the BJP is projected to get 33-37 seats in this region. However, there was no much difference between the current poll and earlier poll prediction about Western UP in terms of vote share and seat share.

What Happened in 2017?

In 2017, the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh were held in 7 phases from February to March.

In 2017, the BJP had stormed to power in UP after 14 years, securing a three-fourths majority and demolishing rivals Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

The BJP had won 312 seats in the 403-member Assembly in 2017.

Moreovr, the Congress party had lost all the four assembly seats in Amethi district, the pocket borough of the Nehru-Gandhi family, with BJP bagging three of them.

UP Assembly Elections 2022: All you need to know

Last month, the Election Commission had announced the dates for assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. As per the announcement, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2022 will be held from February 10 in seven phases. The counting of votes will take place on March 10.

COVID protocols for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022:

• No physical election rallies, roadshows yatras allowed in 5 states till January 15 due to the COVID situation
• Physical rallies during campaign, if allowed later, must follow Covid-19 guidelines
• Political parties and candidates advised to conduct their election campaign in digital or virtual modes as much as possible
• Polling time in all five states to be increased by one hour
• No victory procession to be allowed post-results
• All personnel on election duty will be doubly-vaccinated and also eligible for precautionary third dose to ensure Covid-safe polls.

Methodology And Survey Details

The Zee News-DesignBoxed survey is one of the most accurate opinion polls in the country. Zee News-DesignBoxed reached out to people across 117 seats of poll-bound Punjab between December 10, 2021, to January 15, 2022. The survey was done among randomly selected eligible adults and asked people about the most important issue and the factors that would help reach a decision. The opinion poll also asked people about their preferred choice for the Chief Minister and how caste dynamics swayed the voting decision.

The Zee News-DesignBoxed would also emphasize that despite all precautions taken during the sample survey, a margin of +/-4% is always a possibility if we take into account the respondents’ deviation from the sample. Also, the numbers in the opinion poll are not the actual predictions but a projection based on a sample survey. This survey is the base for the Opinion poll and not actual results.