#ZeeOpinionPoll For Uttar Pradesh: The Big Takeaways

In Zee News Opinion Poll, the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to storm back to power by winning 245-267 seats in 403 member assembly but may face stiff competition from the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022: The state of Uttar Pradesh has always played a pivotal role in the national politics. It is often said that the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh. Starting from Lal Bahadur Shastri to Narendra Modi, the state has offered India eight of its 14 prime ministers. It has been the home state of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty for five generations. Thus, the political significance of UP is not limited to its numerical strength in the Lok Sabha, to which it sends 80 representatives but also Assembly polls of 403 seats.

With the tenure of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly getting over on 14 May this year, the Election Commission of India, last week, announced the poll schedule to elect the next government in the state. According to the dates announced by the poll panel, the state will vote in seven phases on the following dates: February 10 (Thursday), February 14 (Monday), February 20 (Sunday), February 23 (Wednesday), February 27 (Sunday), March 3 (Thursday) and March 7 (Monday).

Before the India’s largest state casts its ballot, Nation’s most trusted News channel, Zee News conducted India’s biggest opinion poll to sense the mood of the people in the state.  According to the survey conducted by Zee News-DesignedBox, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ushering back to power with clear majority. However, it it is important to note that the Samajwadi Party is likely to gain almost 12 percent voteshare compared to 2017 Assembly polls.

Here are some of the key takeaways from Zee News-DesignedBox survey:

• Incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party likely to win Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls with absolute majority (245-267 seats)
• Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party likely to gain massive vote share
• Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party likely to face near wipeout as majority of its votes shift to Samajwadi Party
• Samajwadi Party predicted to gain in Purvanchal but BJP still ahead
• Saffron surge in Bundelkhand, likely to sweep 19 seats
• BJP Likely to sweep Central Uttar Pradesh
• West UP: BJP in a close fight with Samajwadi party
• In Awadh region, BJP likely to win 76 seats whereas Samajwadi Party to grab 34 seats

Uttar Pradesh Seat Projection

• BJP  245 to 267 Seats
• Samajwadi Party 125 to 148 Seats
• BSP 5 to 9 seats
• Congress 3-7 Seats

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly has a total of 403 seats, with 202 being the majority mark. These 403 constituencies are distributed across seven broad regions – West UP (44 constituencies), Ruhelkhand (52), Doab (73), Awadh (78), Bundelkhand (19), East UP (76) and North East UP (61).

To recall, in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, the BJP registered a massive victory securing 312 seats, while the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party managed 47. Mayawati’s BSP had to contend with 19 seats and the Congress was relegated to the fourth spot with just seven seats.

How many seats did the BJP win in the 2017 UP elections?

In the 2017 UP assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 312 out of a total of 403 seats.The halfway mark is 202.

What are the percentages of different castes in Uttar Pradesh?

As per the 2011 census: OBC = 40%; Dalits(SC) = 20.8%; Tribals(ST) = 0.8%; Forward caste = 23%; Muslims = 19%; Others = 0.9%

What is the percentage of Muslim population in Uttar Pradesh?

As per the 2011 census, the Muslim population then was 38,483,967. Which was 19% of the total population.

Which are the prominent parties in the fray in UP?

Bharatiya Janata Party, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samajwadi Party, Congress. Also in the fray are RLD, AIMIM, Apna Dal, SBSP etc. The SP and Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD have reached a seat-sharing agreement.

Methodology of Zee News-DesignBoxed Opinion Poll

The Zee News-DesignBoxed survey is one of the most accurate opinion polls in the country. Zee News-DesignBoxed reached out to people across 403 seats of poll-bound Uttar Pradesh between December 10, 2021 to January 15, 2022. The survey was done among randomly selected eligible adults and asked people about the most important issue and the factors that would help reach a decision. The opinion poll also asked people about their preferred choice for the Chief Minister and how caste dynamics swayed the voting decision.

The Zee News-DesignBoxed would also emphasize that despite all precautions taken during the sample survey, a margin of +/-4% is always a possibility if we take into account the respondents’ deviation from the sample. Also, the numbers in the opinion poll are not the actual predictions but a projection based on a sample survey. This survey is the base for the Opinion poll and not actual results. Uttar Pradesh will go to the polls on February 10 (Thursday), February 14 (Monday), February 20 (Sunday), February 23 (Wednesday), February 27 (Sunday), March 3 (Thursday) and March 7 (Monday) and the counting of votes will take place on March 10.