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If politics is art of the possible the coming days in Maharashtra will see all sets of permutations and combinations after the collapse of two time tested alliances. BJP- Shiv Sena were the first break their 25 year alliance after the saffron partners failed to agree on seat distribution. Congress-NCP was the next alliance to break apart, again after they too failed to agree on seats sharing. Both the alliances have fallen apart just two days before filing of the nominations for the upcoming State Assembly Elections, thus opening doors for various political possibilities Apart from the seat-sharing issue raised by all the four parties, there was also some deep friction that was igniting the move for each alliance. BJP, on the one hand, might have contemplated the move riding on the recent Narendra Modi wave, hoping to get rid of regional forces in order to create a new secularism brand around them. Also Read - WATCH | Congress MPs Burn Copies of Farm Bills in Parliament, Say 'Will Reduce BJP to Ashes'
When they the BJP make a pact with Shiv Sena? Twenty-five years back, BJP was a relatively lesser popular nationalist body as compared to Shiv Sena which had roaring popularity in Maharashtra given the mass appeal its chief Bal Thackeray could generate. However, the tide has turned and Shiv Sena will be contesting its first assembly elections this year without its biggest face, Balasaheb after he passed away two years ago. Also Read - BJP Announces 'Know Namo' Quiz on Narendra Modi's Birthday, Winners to Get Books Signed by PM
On the other hand, the personal friction between Ajit Pawar and Prithviraj Chavan of the Congress seems to have developed into a much bigger ball of political fire, as the parties of the coalition government look to part ways.
Let’s see what the possible outcomes of the two break-ups are:
1) All four parties go alone:
It is highly unlikely that all four parties will contest the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014 alone. In case they do, chances are close to nil that any of them will win a majority. Post-poll alliances with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Republican Part of India (RPI) and other smaller parties too might not get them the majority either. With just two days to go for filing nominations, post-poll alliances will be a possible alternative as two big parties will be needed to lead to form a government.
2) NCP and Shiv Sena tie up, Congress and BJP contest independently:
If two of the most popular mass parties in the state – NCP and Shiv Sena – go in for a tie, in all likelihood they will win a majority. Congress and BJP will stand to lose big time if this happens. The BJP’s move might just backfire in this case.
3) NCP and BJP contest together, Congress and Shiv Sena go alone:
At present, this looks the most likely possibility with NCP claiming to go with ‘secular forces’ for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly Elections. In such a possibility, the MNS will play a big role in eating up the Shiv Sena votes and help the NCP-BJP combine to get a majority. The Congress’ chances have weakened big time with NCP backing out. It is unlikely that they will go with Shiv Sena due to major ideological differences.