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According to NASA, asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass close to Earth in 2032, and has a 3.1 percent chance striking the planet, with Mumbai and Kolkata, two of India's biggest urban centers, being at the most risk of being a probable target.

NASA has flagged concerns after it calculated that ‘2024 YR4’ asteroid has more chances of striking Earth, which will cause unimaginable destruction and kill millions of people. In its latest calculations, the US space agency observed that the giant asteroid, said to be bigger than a football field, has 3.1% chance of collision, compared to previously determined 2.3 %.

According to NASA, the asteroid will pass close to Earth in 2032, and has a 3.1 percent chance striking the planet, with Mumbai and Kolkata, two of India’s biggest urban centers, being at the most risk of being a probable target. Notably, NASA had on February 7, revised the probability of this asteroid colliding with Earth from 1.2 to 2.3 percent, and now the chances of a collision have significantly increased to 3.1 percent, or 1 in 32, according to a Live Science report.

There is also a 0.3 percent chance of the asteroid colliding with the moon, the report said.

Which cities are most at risk?

While there is no foolproof method to determine which part of Earth might be struck by the asteroid, experts have predicted that the possible collision could take place somewhere in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Northern South America, Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Arabian Sea and South Asia.

Major cities which face the most threat of the asteroid impact include, Bangladesh capital Dhaka, Mumbai and Kolkata in India, Colombian capital Bogota, the West African city Abidjan, Lagos in Nigeria, and Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. These potential impact zones have been categorized in what is known as the “risk corridor”.

How much damage could asteroid 2024 YR4 cause?

As per scientists, asteroid 2024 YR4 is about 177 feet (54 meters) wide, which is roughly equal to the asteroid that caused the Tunguska event in Siberia in 1908, experts predict that the damage cause by the impact, if it occurs, would be local, not global, as many fear.

Keeping in view the estimated diameter of the asteroid, a possible collision with Earth will release over 8 megatons of 8 megatons of energy, which is 500 times more energy than the one generated by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, and enough to turn any major world city into a mere pile of rubble.

The Siberia incident had razed around 2,000 square kilometres of forest, uprooting 80 million trees, with the force of the impact estimated to be equivalent to 10-15 megatons of TNT.

Will the asteroid hit earth?

Experts and global agencies have predicted that there is a 96.9 percent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth, however, the 3.1 percent probability of collision cannot be underestimated as the size of the asteroid would mean wide spread destruction and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths, if it strikes a densely populated city like Mumbai, Dhaka, or Kolkata.

According to available data, the asteroid will pass Earth at a distance of around 127,699 km (79,348 miles), with an uncertainty of 1.408 million km (0.87 million mi), on December 22, 2032. The risk corridor of 2024 YR4’s possible impact locations runs from the Pacific Ocean to South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, and then to northern India, as per reports.